Broncos RB Javonte Williams says “the plan” is for him to be medically cleared in time for training camp. No surprise there, as Williams put in some work at OTAs. He wouldn’t commit to suiting up for Week 1, saying it’s the Broncos’ decision. The team will certainly use the next two months to assess his readiness. We’ll track Williams’ progress closely in training camp, but for now, our RB rankings assume 14 games for the former Round 2 pick.
Dolphins beat writer Chris Perkins believes WR Braxton Berrios “will almost certainly” be the starting slot receiver. Berrios inked a one-year deal with $3 million guaranteed early in free agency. While he brings value as a returner, the 27-year-old totaled just 18 catches (in 17 games) last year with the Jets. Berrios also brings the speed (4.44 forty-time) that HC Mike McDaniel covets. He’ll be on the DFS/deep league spot-start radar if one of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle miss time.
New Panthers RB Miles Sanders is clearly in line to lead the team's rushing after signing the biggest free-agent contract for any RB that switched teams this offseason. HC Frank Reich called him "a three-down back" in June, according to AP. And Sanders said he's excited to reunite with RBs coach Duce Staley, who "knows what I can really do." He certainly seems to be expecting more receiving work. But Sanders' past three years have been pretty terrible in that area. He went from 3.1 receptions per game as a rookie to 2.3, 2.2, and 1.2. And his 10.2 yards per catch fell to 7.0, 6.1, and 3.9. Sanders has also seen his Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade decline each year. RB Chuba Hubbard doesn't look like a great bet to steal a big role after seeing his work decline in Year 2. RB Raheem Blackshear, however, caught 123 passes at 9.9 yards per catch over a 5-year college career that spanned two stops. There's also room for the Panthers to import a veteran such as Kareem Hunt. Sanders carries some upside from his mid-RB2 position in our fantasy football rankings. Just make sure you don't overrate him simply because you can't see who else in the Carolina backfield would claim significant opportunity share.
Falcons WR Drake London finished his rookie season just 45th among WRs in PPR points per game. Yet he's going 22nd among WRs right now in Underdog Fantasy ADP. Why? Well, London did rank sixth among all wideouts in target share in 2022. He enjoyed a strong finish after QB Desmond Ridder took over for Marcus Mariota, averaging 9.0 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 83.3 yards over the final four games. And Atlanta increased its passing volume over that span. But the team still ranked just 24th in neutral-situation pass rate over that time. London also trailed TE Kyle Pitts in target share before Pitts went down with a knee injury. Atlanta sports a weak receiving depth chart behind those two for 2023, so there's room for both exciting young pass catchers to continue drawing large shares. But London will need more team passing volume to help him pay off at ADP. And drafting RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall would be a funny way for the Falcons to announce that they're going to pass a lot more in 2023. London sits only a little lower in our 2023 WR rankings than he does in ADP.
NFL analyst Greg Cosell doesn’t expect Giants WR Jalin Hyatt to be a “major factor” in the 2023 offense. “I think he’s going to have a lot to learn,” Cosell said on the Inside the Birds podcast. “Yes, he can run. There’s no question he can run, and he can get on top of the defense … but I don’t think …based on tape study… that he’s going be a big factor, particularly early in the season.” The rookie fell to Round 3, perhaps due to a limited route tree and a single year of production. Either way, he landed with a Giants squad that’s unsettled at WR long-term. See where Hyatt landed in our dynasty WR rankings.
The Bills utilized 2-TE sets on only 38 snaps (3.7%) last season, per TruMedia. That number will rise following the addition of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. As The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia writes, “[the Bills] made Kincaid a key to opening things up and being more unpredictable on offense.” Buscaglia also notes that Buffalo leaned into 2-TE sets a bit more down the stretch last season. Dawson Knox counts ~$6.5 million against Buffalo’s cap, so he’ll retain a role. We’ll watch for training camp clues on how frequently OC Ken Dorsey plans to utilize 12 personnel. (The Bills practice just down the road from Draft Sharks headquarters.) Kincaid’s ADP is currently TE13, with Knox at TE20. Check the TE rankings to see where both guys land.
Colts beat writer Kevin Bowen considers WR Josh Downs “the ideal slot receiver complement.” While Michael Pittman will kick inside some, Downs’ path to playing in 3-WR sets (with Alec Pierce) looks clear. Bowen adds that the rookie showed a “strong early connection” with QB Anthony Richardson, with Downs “easily creating space in those short areas of the field.” Colts area scout Chad Henry shared the same sentiment. “He’s a playmaker,” Henry said of Downs. “We don’t have a whole lot of guys like him. He’s sort of a human chain mover. Good luck covering him in a short area.” Downs missed part of the spring with a knee issue, but all indications suggest it’s minor. Depending on the play of Richardson, Downs could become a deep-league PPR spot starter. For now, though, he’s not someone to circle on your cheat sheet.
Packers beat writer Bill Huber believes the team’s O-line enters training camp in “fine form.” Green Bay’s projected starters — save for LT David Bakhtairi — played together over the final nine games of last season. We’ll keep an eye on the health of Bakhtiari, nearly 32, but this unit looks like a positive for Jordan Love and the run game. Green Bay ranked top-8 last year in pass and run-block win rate, an ESPN metric. See where Love slots in our QB rankings.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel plummeted from third among WRs in PPR points per game in 2021 to 28th last year. His volume dipped a bit with the addition of RB Christian McCaffrey. But efficiency was Samuel's bigger problem. After setting career highs in 2021 with 11.6 yards per target and 2.93 yards per route run, he registered career lows last year with 6.7 yards per target and 1.85 yards per route. Expect a bounce back there. McCaffrey's presence and Samuel's lengthy injury history remain concerns, but he's much cheaper in fantasy drafts this summer than last. See where Samuel lands in the 2023 WR Rankings.
Texans WR Nico Collins was QB C.J. Stroud's "favorite target throughout the spring," ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime writes. Collins finished just 53rd among WRs in PPR points per game last year. But he took tangible steps forward from his 2021 rookie campaign in target share (13.4% to 20.1%) and yards per route (1.24 to 1.68). Collins is a candidate for another leap in year three. And Stroud should be a big boost to Houston's passing game. For more on Collins, check out 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
The biggest question facing Saints RB Alvin Kamara for 2023 is the risk of suspension stemming from his still-lingering assault case. We'll almost certainly be waiting until at least August for any news on that front. But what can we expect whenever he is on the field? The veteran showed declines in both rushing and receiving efficiency over the past two years. Kamara rebounded some from a career-low 3.7 yards per carry in 2021 to 4.0 last year. Though his 14.9 carries per game (down from 18.5 in 2021) might still be more than ideal. Kamara finished each of the past two years 40th or worse in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA and DYAR. His yards after contact per attempt matched the lowest rate of his career and ranked 46th among 61 RBs with 70+ carries, according to Pro Football Focus. Kamara also set career lows in PFF receiving grade each of the past two years, though even last season found him a decent 23rd among 61 RBs with 20+ targets. Volume has kept Kamara productive. He finished each of the past five years among the top 11 RBs in opportunity share (carries plus targets). The Saints signed RB Jamaal Williams and then drafted RB Kendre Miller in Round 3, so we should expect some dip in Kamara's touch volume. They also spent big, though, on QB Derek Carr. So Kamara could make up for any loss in touches if his efficiency rebounds, in an offense with room to rebound. An RB3-level ADP makes Kamara an intriguing bet for best ball drafts -- and a potential steal if he avoids suspension. Read more about him and the other Saints RBs in our 2023 RB rankings.
New Panthers WR Adam Thielen told the team website that he's been "so impressed" with teammate WR Terrace Marshall Jr. both on and off the field. "He's been so great in the meeting room, and then being on the field with him, there's a lot of potential there," Thielen said. New HC Frank Reich added that Marshall showed improvement late last season, the WR's second in the pros: "I think it's just a matter of him getting more play time and making those plays consistently. I think we saw that last year with the reps that he got, the catches that he had, the big plays that he had, that he shows the capacity to kind of be a big play guy." Marshall will have to compete for those reps with imports Thielen, D.J. Chark, and Jonathan Mingo this summer. The good news for his fantasy outlook is that Marshall's disappointing first two seasons has him lingering on the board until the very end of best ball drafts. He's far from a must-add, but there's no real risk to taking some shots on Marshall in that range. See where he and all the new Panthers teammates sit in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.
Texans WR Robert Woods endured easily his worst NFL season in 2022. He tallied his fewest receptions per game (3.1) since he was a 2013 rookie. He posted career lows in yards per catch, yards per target, and yards per route. He earned his lowest Pro Football Focus receiving grade since 2015. But it's also worth remembering that Woods was coming off a November ACL tear. He signed a two-year deal with the Texans that includes $10 million guaranteed and a $7.6 million annual average. Woods has finished among the top 40 WRs in target share every year since he left Buffalo. That included top-30 rankings in all five Rams seasons (with highs inside the top 15). He'll compete for roles with an unproven WR corps that includes Nico Collins, John Metchie, and third-round rookie Tank Dell. Woods had already seen his average depth of target shorted in recent years (before the injury) while still running more than half his routes from outside. That could make him a nice complement to Collins, who tends to work deeper downfield. And Houston should get a QB upgrade, from Davis Mills to rookie C.J. Stroud. No one's expecting big things from Woods in 2023, but that's what makes him most interesting for best ball drafts. His ADP sits outside the top 80 among WRs, despite a path to leading Houston in targets. There's no risk -- but at least decent upside -- to mixing in some Woods late in drafts, especially in full-PPR formats. See how his spot in our 2023 fantasy football rankings compares with that ADP.
Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic isn’t confident a full-time WR3 will emerge in Buffalo. WRs Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, and Trent Sherfield — plus TE Dalton Kincaid — are competing for snaps. “Don’t be surprised if this battle continues into the regular season and the team uses a hot-hand approach with all of them,” Buscaglia concludes. A Round 1 pick, Kincaid brings the most intrigue. The issue? Fantasy drafters are treating him as a fringe starter with a TE13 ADP (FFPC). Shakir made a few big plays last year, then watched the Bills sink $5.2 million guaranteed into Harty. Even Sherfield generated some buzz in OTAs. We’re ultimately talking about deep league fliers, although training camp could push one name into your best ball strategy.
Rams QB Matt Stafford's 2022 season ended in Week 11 with a spinal cord contusion. He was disappointing even before that, ranking 22nd among QBs in fantasy points per game. Stafford's 6.9 yards per pass attempt was his worst mark since 2018 and the fifth-worst mark among his 14 NFL seasons. A leaky offensive line was part of the problem. But Stafford registered his lowest Pro Football Focus passing grade since 2015, ranking 22nd among 31 qualifying QBs. Now 35, Stafford's best days are certainly behind him. But there's some bounce-back potential here with better health for Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and the offensive line. Remember that Stafford finished fifth among QBs in fantasy points in his Rams debut in 2021. We're not expecting him to return to that level of production -- but he doesn't need to at his current QB19 ADP. See where Stafford sits in our 2023 QB Rankings.
49ers TE George Kittle finished second among TEs in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year. But there are a few reasons to be wary of drafting him in 2023. Kittle derived a huge portion of his 2022 fantasy production from his career-high 11 TDs. He scored on 18.3% of his receptions, which is more than double the league-wide average TE TD rate of 8.4% and more than triple Kittle's 6.0% TD rate over his first five seasons. He's in for regression in the TD column. On top of that, Kittle's catches per game, yards per game, yards per route, and target share last year were all his lowest marks since his 2017 rookie campaign. Turning 30 in August, Kittle is likely in decline. He faces stiff target competition this season in RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. And the 49ers figure to remain a run-leaning offense. Kittle's high weekly ceiling makes him worth taking some shots on in best ball. But he looks generally overvalued at his TE4 ADP. Kittle sits significantly lower in our TE Rankings.
Rams beat writer Cameron DaSilva writes that “in all likelihood,” the team will use a rotation at WR3. Van Jefferson holds the WR2 role behind Cooper Kupp. But we’ll see training camp sort the depth chart beyond that, with Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowrenek, and Puka Nacua as leading contenders. Atwell brings big-play appeal, making him a late-round option in best ball leagues. Nacua, though, has drawn the most buzz this offseason. The real takeaway is that Kupp remains a strong candidate to lead the NFL in targets.
Seahawks writer Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic says "Seattle's running back setup is likely to be the Ken Walker Show featuring [Zach] Charbonnet." Dugar points out that since 2018 (five seasons), the Seahawks have only had eight regular-season games in which they gave 10+ carries to more than one RB. We're certainly betting that Walker takes the clear rushing lead, as you can tell from our RB rankings. We project Walker for more than twice as many carries (241) as Charbonnet (102). But the rookie could hurt Walker's involvement in the passing game. Both players are going at fine levels in current drafting to be at least worth mixing into your best ball entries. We'll watch how things play out in training camp and preseason and continue to assess how Seattle RBs should factor into lineup-setting leagues.
Jaguars TE Evan Engram enjoyed a big rebound season in 2022, both in real football and fantasy. That included finishing fifth among TEs in PPR points, fifth in targets, fourth in receptions and yards, and tied for 11th in TDs. Engram's eight top-12 weekly finishes also tied him for sixth at the position. But his weekly lows dipped pretty low. Engram's median weekly PPR finish for the year was TE16. That tied Gerald Everett for just 13th. Jacksonville returns WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, each of whom earned higher Pro Football Focus receiving grades than Engram for the season. WR Calvin Ridley adds a new challenge for targets, and he arrives as arguably the biggest receiving talent on the team. Engram deserves top-12 consideration among TEs in fantasy drafts this year. But his TE8-9 ADP so far puts him a little higher than his spot in our TE rankings. You can mix him in if you're drafting a lot of teams, especially in best ball lineups that include QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram hasn't been a target player for us in early drafting. Read more specifics about Engram's outlook on his player page.
Jets WR Allen Lazard’s contract calls for $22 million guaranteed, the most handed out to a free-agent pass catcher this offseason. The guys behind him: Jakobi Meyers ($21 million), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($16 million), and Odell Beckham ($15 million). Lazard set career highs last year in targets (100), catches (60), and yards (788), despite two missed games. He just wasn’t particularly efficient. In a sample of 41 WRs, he sat 19th in yards per catch, 30th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, 32nd in yards per route run, and 35th in catch rate. Lazard’s contract says he’ll be the clear No. 2 WR behind Garrett Wilson. A history with Aaron Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett also supplies an edge. Said Lazard (via the Jets’ official site): “For me, playing in the same offense really my entire career, having Coach Hackett every single year except for last year, and then be able to reunite again with him here, has been a rejuvenating feeling to be able to have him and his energy around.” Projected for 97 targets (in 16 games), Lazard hits the WR rankings as a spot-start WR3.
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