Matt Schneidman of The Athletic expects the snap shares of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to stay “in the same vicinity” this season. Jones saw ~52% of the snaps in 2021; Dillon handled ~43%. Jones’ ability in the passing game gives him the leg up, but Dillon has made it a point of emphasis this offseason. “Coming in, I was always the big back who’s only good for third-and-short, so I really want to be and I think of myself as an APB, an all-purpose back, no matter what the situation,” Dillon said. “And I feel like last year was a good start, a good foothold if you will, but there’s still a couple opportunities I wish I had caught the ball and been in better placement or ran a route better. So I’m happy with the improvement, but obviously still working on it.” In FFPC drafting, Jones is currently coming off the board around RB10, with Dillion averaging out as the RB26.
The 49ers held RB Elijah Mitchell out of the offseason program following a "clean-up" knee procedure. While an exact date is unknown, Mitchell underwent the procedure sometime in early 2022. Per team insider Matt Barrows, Mitchell is “expected” to return for training camp. Frankly, it’d be a major surprise if he’s not on the field for day 1. But we’ll keep a close eye on the 2nd-year back who’s fresh off posting 207-963-5 in 11 games (10 starts). He'll be pushed for touches by Jeff Wilson, Trey Sermon and rookie 3rd-rounder Tyrion Davis-Price.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport believes there’s a 75% chance that QB Malik Willis remains on the bench all season. Ryan Tannehill has started every game since taking over for Marcus Mariota in Week 6 of 2019. And despite some positive words on Willis this offseason, he’s still considered a project. Davenport actually guesses that the rookie’s first start won’t come until late in the 2023 season -- and that's only if Tennessee's been eliminated from the postseason. Of course, a lot can change between now and then. But for 2022, unless you’re playing in a deep superflex format, Willis should go undrafted in fantasy.
ESPN's Brooke Pryor gives Steelers QB Kenny Pickett a 2% chance of winning the Week 1 starting job. "Throughout OTAs and minicamp, Pickett consistently took third-string reps behind [Mitchell] Trubisky and [Mason] Rudolph," Pryor writes. "To supplant Trubisky as the starter by Week 1, Pickett would have to be the second coming of Johnny Unitas as soon as he hits training camp." We'd give Pickett a better shot at starting opening day just because the competition is so underwhelming. But we've also heard other Steelers beat writers call Trubisky the heavy favorite for the Week 1 nod. We're still projecting Pickett to start more games than Trubisky this year, but it's tough to like the rookie in best-ball drafts if he won't start the whole season.
Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said TE Noah Fant had the "most spectacular camp of anybody" at June's mandatory minicamp, according to ESPN's Brady Henderson. We all know Carroll is prone to hyperbole and general positivity. But this also follows reports of the new Seahawk digging a TE-friendly offense. Combine it all with an ADP that finds the former 1st-round pick deep in TE2 territory, and Fant presents clear value in fantasy football drafts right now.
NFL insider Jordan Schultz believes Rams WR Allen Robinson will have his best season to date in 2022. A-Rob once posted 80-1400-14, but that was back in 2015. So we’ll forgive Schultz for that one. Still, there’s a ton of hype behind Robinson’s bounce-back candidacy. And he’s certainly off to a strong start alongside Cooper Kupp. “We’ve been able to feed off each other off the get go,” Robinson said. “Being able to just sit down, talk football as we’re watching and going over different routes, seeing different angles. I think that’s the biggest thing is the two of us are guys that are very versatile across the board. We both can do a lot of different things and I think that gives us a tremendous advantage because it’s not predictable at all to what either of us will be doing when it comes to a particular concept.” The almost 29-year-old remains an upside WR2.
No more holdout worries for WR Terry McLaurin. He and the Commanders agreed to a 3-year, $70 million contract extension on Tuesday. That tacks on to the final year of his rookie deal to keep McLaurin signed through the 2025 season. He'll be 30 at that point. The 2019 3rd-rounder has opened his career with WR30, WR20 and WR36 finishes in PPR points per game -- despite often dealing with poor QB play. It's arguable whether Carson Wentz will stabilize that situation. McLaurin sits in mid-range WR2 territory in our 2022 rankings.
Adam Jahns of The Athletic writes that RB Khalil Herbert “looks poised for a larger role” in year 2. The former 6th round pick wasn’t drafted by new GM Ryan Poles. And he’s learning a different offense under new HC Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy. Still, one look at the Bears’ depth chart says Herbert’s close to a lock for the #2 job behind David Montgomery. At a minimum, it’s encouraging that he handled 18, 19, 18 and 23 carries early in his rookie year with Montgomery sidelined. Ultimately, we don’t anticipate Herbert seeing enough work to gain standalone fantasy value. But one Montgomery injury would likely place the 2nd-year back firmly in RB2+ territory.
The Athletic's Ben Standig wonders whether rookie Brian Robinson will replace Antonio Gibson as the Commanders' goal-line back this season. "Washington selected running back Brian Robinson to be a between-the-tackles hammer," Standig writes. "It will be interesting to see whether Robinson or Antonio Gibson, who remains the lead back, handles goal-line/short-yardage situations. Often the rookie gets eased into such scenarios, but Gibson’s penchant for fumbles combined with Robinson’s ball security and interior running could flip this toward the Alabama alum." Gibson coughed it up 6 times last season and was just-ok near the goal line, converting 5 of 12 carries inside the 5-yard line into TDs. Robinson has 5 pounds on Gibson and scored 14 times on the ground at Alabama last year. Usage in Washington's backfield will be worth monitoring closely in training camp and preseason action.
CBS' Josina Anderson reports that the Seahawks "still have high-level interest" in Baker Mayfield and are even open to extending his contract. With training camp now about a month away, we should be nearing movement on this front. Carolina has also reportedly remained in the hunt.
Speculating on the team's replacement plan in the wake of TE Rob Gronkowski's (2nd) retirement, Scott Smith of the team website highlights the potential of 4th-round rookie Cade Otton. Smith says "there is the potential for him to be the one tight end the Buccaneers keep on the field most often," with receiving skills that "many draft analysts" believe exceed his college usage and the fact that he's "already considered an above-average and very willing blocker." Smith goes on to say that there might not be a "single clear answer" and that the Bucs could just blend Otton, fellow rookie Ko Kieft, vet Cameron Brate and perhaps 1 more player. Otton is primarily a name to know for dynasty usage, but this also serves as a reminder to temper fantasy expectations for Brate. He's likely the team's best receiving bet at the position with Gronk gone. But Brate has also played less than 40% of Tampa Bay snaps in 3 straight years. Just 2 of those included Gronkowski, and he missed 5 games in 2021.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson said he's "so excited" about new HC Kevin O'Connell's offense. "Our offensive style, it's not a run-first offense anymore," Jefferson said. "Just us being able to put different people in different positions and distribute the ball, really." We actually wouldn't describe last year's Vikings as "run first" considering they ranked 11th in pass attempts. But they finished 18th in situation-neutral pass rate, so there's room for at least a moderate climb in passing volume this season. Jefferson is a locked-in top 3 fantasy WR.
The Athletic's Paul Dehner believes the Bengals are no longer interested in making RB Joe Mixon a 3-down back. Dehner notes that Mixon's usage on 3rd downs fell off precipitously late in the season and through the playoffs. Over his final 9 games, Mixon played just 17 3rd-down snaps compared to RB Samaje Perine's 83. But, Mixon averaged 4.3 targets over those 9 games vs. just 2.7 over his first 11. Losing 3rd-down snaps obviously isn't ideal and will probably keep Mixon from joining the top tier of fantasy RBs. But he's still capable of RB1 production as the clear lead back in a strong Bengals offense.
Pro Football Talk hears that Saints RB Alvin Kamara is "bracing for a suspension of at least six weeks." Kamara is facing felony battery charges for a fight he was allegedly involved in over Pro Bowl weekend in Vegas. His next hearing isn't scheduled until August, though, and it's unclear how long the legal process will take beyond that. The NFL usually waits for that process to play out before making its own ruling. So, even if Kamara is eventually suspended, it might not come this season. Until this situation is resolved, Kamara is a risk/reward fantasy pick. He's going in the late 2nd round of recent FFPC drafts.
49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo "remains on schedule" in his rehab from March shoulder surgery and is expected to resume throwing in early July, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports. HC Kyle Shanahan straight-up said a month ago that he expects Garoppolo to be traded once this shoulder issue is behind him. Carolina seems like his most likely landing spot.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that 49ers WR Deebo Samuel has not rescinded his trade request. The team has indicated it has no plans to move Samuel, and he attended the team's mandatory minicamp in early June. But this at least serves as a reminder that some tension remains. We'll see whether that forces a move.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson will have a hearing before NFL disciplinary officer Sue L. Robinson beginning Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. There's no official limit to the length of the hearing. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler says it's expected to last 1-2 days. We'll see about the timeline for discipline to be handed down afterward, but it's another signal that such a step is finally approaching.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler says he's "told" the Bears like the way QB Justin Fields has developed this offseason. Specifically, the 2nd-year QB has reportedly quickened his release when passing and improved at throwing on the move. "The Bears are excited for offensive coordinator Luke Getsy's system, which should give Fields more space to operate," Fowler writes. Even if you're not ready to fully buy in on Fields, he's going 15th among QBs in FFPC ADP and 16th on Underdog. There's plenty of fantasy upside from that range even if Fields struggles from a real-life perspective.
Pro Football Network reports that the NFLPA has "concern" that the league wants to suspend Browns QB Deshaun Watson for the whole 2022 season, "if not indefinitely." We'll see what finally happens, but we sure seem to be trending toward a decision before the regular season. And anything short of a year seems likely to get the NFL vilified. If you're drafting best-ball rosters right now, it's probably best to just pass on Watson. Of course, his stock is falling everywhere. Watson's currently QB24 in Underdog drafts. So there's obviously fantasy upside to taking a shot if you so choose and he plays at all.
Matt Schneidman of The Athletic writes that Packers TE Robert Tonyan “may not be ready to play Week 1.” Schneidman adds that he’d be surprised if Tonyan isn’t ready to play by Week 6. The veteran tore his ACL at the end of October, so he’ll be ~10.5 months removed from the injury come Week 1. Tonyan’s not a particularly desirable TE2, even if he’s ready for the opener.
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