Welcome to Week 12’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 12 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 12!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

t-1. Patriots at Bengals (50.5)
t-1. Giants at Lions (50.5)
t-3. Colts at Chiefs (49.5)
t-3. Buccaneers at Rams (49.5)
t-3. Panthers at 49ers (49.5)
t-6. Jaguars at Cardinals (47.5)
t-6. Eagles at Cowboys (47.5)

Lowest Game Totals

11. Vikings at Packers (41.5)
12. Seahawks at Titans (40.5)
13. Falcons at Saints (40.0)
14. Browns at Raiders (36.0)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Lions (32.0)
2. Ravens (29.0)
3. Patriots (28.75)
4. 49ers (28.5)
5. Rams (28.25)
t-6. Chiefs (26.5)
t-6. Seahawks (26.5)

Fewest Projected Points

24. Giants (18.5)
25. Vikings (17.25)
26. Browns (16.25)
27. Jets (15.5)
28. Titans (14.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Bears (64.3)
2. Jaguars (63.8)
3. 49ers (63.7)
4. Chiefs (63.5)
5. Patriots (63.4)

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Raiders (59.8)
25. Jets (59.7)
26. Vikings (59.5)
27. Steelers (59.2)
28. Titans (59.1)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Eagles at Cowboys (26.7 seconds)
2. Falcons at Saints (26.8 seconds)
3. Vikings at Packers (27.4 seconds)
4. Giants at Lions (27.5 seconds)
5. Steelers at Bears (27.8 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

10. Colts at Chiefs (28.9 seconds)
11. Jets at Ravens (29.0 seconds)
12. Panthers at 49ers (29.0 seconds)
13. Seahawks at Titans (29.1 seconds)
14. Buccaneers at Rams (29.5 seconds)

Weather Concerns

No weather issues this week!

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Patriots at Bengals (+88.5%)
2. Seahawks at Titans (+69.8%)
3. Eagles at Cowboys (+66.0%)
4. Ravens vs. Jets (+62.4%)
5. 49ers vs. Panthers (+61.3%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Jets at Ravens (-8.0%)
25. Vikings at Packers (-11.1%)
26. Raiders vs. Browns (-24.5%)
27. Browns at Raiders (-34.5%)
28. Titans vs. Seahawks (-36.8%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Davis Mills vs. Bills (-16.0%)
25. Daniel Jones at Chiefs (-17.9%)
26. Dak Prescott vs. Eagles (-21.1%)
27. Geno Smith vs. Browns (-24.2%)
28. Josh Allen at Texans (-33.4%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Lions vs. Giants (+16.9%)
2. Colts at Chiefs (+7.4%)
3. Chiefs vs. Colts (-2.2%)
4. Steelers at Bears (-3.0%)
5. Bills at Texans (-3.1%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Buccaneers at Rams (-29.7%)
25. Browns at Raiders (-30.4%)
26. Cardinals vs. Jaguars (-33.1%)
27. Titans vs. Seahawks (-49.2%)
28. Raiders vs. Browns (-54.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Bills at Texans (-14.5%)
25. Raiders vs. Browns (-23.1%)
26. Bengals vs. Patriots (-23.2%)
27. Giants at Lions (-23.9%)
28. Buccaneers at Rams (-26.6%)

Wide Receiver

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Colts at Chiefs (-14.9%)
25. Cowboys vs. Eagles (-15.3%)
26. 49ers vs. Panthers (-16.8%)
27. Packers vs. Vikings (-17.1%)
28. Bills at Texans (-26.3%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Titans CBs Darrell Baker and Jalyn Armour-Davis

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Buccaneers CBs Zyon McCollum and Benjamin Morrison

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Cordale Flott, and Andru Phillips

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland, Caelen Carson, and Reddy Steward

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Jets CBs Brandon Stephens, Qwan'tez Stiggers, and Jarvis Brownlee

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Bears CBs Nahshon Wright and Nick McCloud

Cardinals WR Michael Wilson vs. Jaguars CBs Montaric Brown and Christian Braswell

Falcons WR Darnell Mooney vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor

Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas vs. Patriots CB Marcus Jones

Panthers WR Jalen Coker vs. 49ers CB Upton Stout

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Bengals WR Tee Higgins vs. Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez

Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Titans WRs Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Josh Jobe

Tight End

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Browns at Raiders (-25.9%)
25. Colts at Chiefs (-26.5%)
26. Saints vs. Falcons (-40.4%)
27. Cowboys vs. Eagles (-49.0%)
28. Texans vs. Bills (-53.1%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Raiders vs. Browns (+110.0%)
2. Seahawks at Titans (+66.5%)
3. Packers vs. Vikings (+63.7%)
4. Jaguars at Cardinals (+57.2%)
5. Browns at Raiders (+52.7%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Colts at Chiefs (-43.5%)
25. Eagles at Cowboys (-50.0%)
26. Buccaneers at Rams (-54.8%)
27. Giants at Lions (-55.5%)
28. Chiefs vs. Colts (-62.1%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Tyler Loop vs. Jets (+47.4%)
2. Jake Elliott at Cowboys (+23.8%)
3. Brandon Aubrey vs. Eagles (+23.1%)
4. Nick Folk at Ravens (+19.7%)
5. Lucas Havrisik vs. Vikings (+14.4%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Ryan Fitzgerald at 49ers (-21.9%)
25. Harrison Butker vs. Colts (-23.7%)
26. Joey Slye vs. Seahawks (-34.9%)
27. Chad Ryland vs. Jaguars (-35.5%)
28. Matt Prater at Texans (-43.9%)