Packers RB Aaron Jones is about as reliable as they come for fantasy managers. Jones finished last season with six top-12 weekly finishes and two more inside the top-24. In total, Jones finished as an RB3 or better in 15 of his 17 games. Among 41 RBs who received 100+ carries in 2022, Jones ranked second in PFF rushing grade, ninth in elusive rating, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.20). There's a reason why he hasn't finished outside the top 12 overall RBs in PPR since 2018. However, there's a risk that streak comes to an end in 2023 with new QB Jordan Love under center. It's reasonable to expect the team will help Love by running the ball plenty, but that'll cut into Jones' production as a receiver out of the backfield. The Packers were fairly neutral in run-pass rate last year, though they did finish 18th in Pass Rate Over Expectation. If that drops any further with Love at the helm, Jones' fantasy ceiling will certainly take a hit. His effectiveness as a pass-catcher is already showing signs of decline, too. Of the 17 RBs who saw 50+ targets last year, Jones finished 13th in PFF receiving grade, 10th in yards per route run (1.25), and 14th in drop rate (9.2%). While not terrible, Jones declined in all three marks vs. 2021. So maybe he can bounce back in that department, but we're not expecting much. See where Jones lands in our current RB rankings.
Tim Twentyman of the Lions’ official site writes that TE Sam LaPorta is “expected to play a big role right away.” It’s a reasonable statement given LaPorta’s TE competition: Brock Wright, James Mitchell, and Shane Zylstra. Per Twentyman, Detroit’s coaching staff came away from OTAs/minicamp “pleasantly surprised” with the rookie’s “instincts and feel for the game.” We’ll see if LaPorta can keep up the momentum come training camp. For now, he’s on a trajectory to enter the spot-start TE1 discussion. Factoring in his current ADP — TE19 — LaPorta made our list of best tight ends for fantasy football.
WR DeAndre Hopkins is signing with the Titans, according to multiple reports. Tennessee has ranked among the front-runners for a while now and could certainly use the help at WR. Second-year WR Treylon Burks arrived in Round 1 of the draft last year and followed a disappointing 2022 with a buzzy spring. But there’s little aside from him at the position. Hopkins’ arrival will challenge the target-share upside for Burks and TE Chig Okonkwo. But it wil also clearly add upside to QB Ryan Tannehill. He has been going near-last among starting QBs throughout best ball draft season. Tennessee doesn’t sport the highest ceiling for Hopkins, who isn’t a lock to beat Burks in targets or fantasy points. Even if he does, the Titans have ranked among the league’s most run-leaning offenses under HC Mike Vrabel. See where all the Titans sit in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.
Update: Hopkins got a two-year, $26 million contract with another $3 million available in incentives each year, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The deal lands Hopkins 23rd among WRs in average annual salary.
The Jaguars have agreed to a three-year deal with TE Evan Engram, ahead of Monday's deadline to extend franchise-tagged players. Engram will get $41.25 million total, with $24 million of that guaranteed, according to NFL.com. Jacksonville extended Engram after he finished among the top 6 TEs across fantasy formats in his first season there. Engram sits low in TE1 territory in our 2023 TE rankings.
Speaking at a youth football camp, Lions WR Jameson Williams said he’s back to his pre-torn ACL playing weight of 185 pounds. (Williams tore his left ACL in January, 2022.) He credits a new workout regimen and diet. “I’m really eager because it’s been a lot of stepping stones, and I’m just ready to get everything cleared up and just play ball,” Williams said via MLive. Of course, he'll miss the first six games while serving a suspension for gambling. He’s the WR49 in FFPC best ball drafts.
Vikings WR K.J. Osborn is an intriguing option for fantasy managers seeking value at the end of drafts. He's coming off a strong finish last year, too. Over the last four weeks of 2022, Osborn saw an uptick in usage as the Vikings’ WR2 ahead of now-departed Adam Thielen. In that stretch, he averaged 8.2 targets per game (19.5% target share), 87.5 receiving yards, 0.5 TDs per game, and 18 PPR points per game. In each of the last two seasons, Osborn has received at least 80 targets and recorded 600+ receiving yards. He’s primarily been the team’s WR3 in that span, but the Vikings ranked eighth in 11-personnel grouping (three-WR sets) in 2022 under first-year HC Kevin O’Connell. Rookie Jordan Addison is the favorite to be the Vikings' WR2 entering this year, but the top three wideouts, including Justin Jefferson, should all spend plenty of time on the field. Addison also missed all of OTAs this offseason due to an undisclosed injury. We're not overly concerned about Addison's health yet, but it speaks to how close Osborn really is to an impact role in an offense that ranked t-10th in PFF team passing grade. You won't find Osborn listed toward the top of our current WR rankings, but he's worthwhile keeping an eye on during training camp.
It's not hard to figure out why new Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo made it into Round 2 of the NFL Draft. He averaged 15.7 yards per catch for his SEC career, including 16.9 his final season at Ole Miss. Then he ran a 4.46-second 40 time at the Scouting Combine and notched 89th-percentile measurements in the broad and vertical jumps -- at nearly 6'2 and 220 pounds. So what's not to like? Mingo caught just 39 passes across his first two college seasons. He seemed on his way to a breakthrough junior year before a foot fracture disrupted things. And even in his best (fourth) season, Mingo still trailed teammate Malik Heath in receptions and yards. That makes it tough to expect Mingo to immediately lead an NFL WR corps in production. The rookie sits just ahead of Adam Thielen to lead Panthers WRs in Underdog ADP. But you won't find him nearly so high in our WR rankings. Carolina doesn't sport an impressive group at the position, but be careful about overrating the rookie on that factor.
Raiders beat writer Vincent Bonsignore doesn’t expect the team to extend RB Josh Jacobs prior to Monday’s deadline. Jacobs hasn’t signed his franchise tag, so he’s not subject to fines if he skips training camp. Bonsignore expects Jacobs to show up for the regular season and calls a trade “unlikely.” The 25-year-old finished at RB3 last year, boosted by a massive 393 touches. He'll remain an RB1 when active, but second-year man Zamir White brings plenty of intrigue as a late-round handcuff. Get White starred on your cheat sheet.
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler led the NFL with 18 total TDs last season. It's tough to bank on that level of TD production again in 2023. But Ekeler's usage suggests that he might not regress much. He tied for sixth league-wide with 24 carries inside the 10-yard line AND ranked third with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line last year. He registered 15.3 expected TDs -- meaning that Ekeler only slightly out-produced his usage. He should play a similar role this season. And the Chargers offense could be even better under new OC Kellen Moore. It all makes Ekeler one of 2023's best TD bets. See exactly how many scores we project him for this season.
Fantasy managers shouldn't overlook Steelers WR Diontae Johnson this season. As bad as it was that he scored zero receiving TDs in 2022, Johnson led the Steelers in targets (147), target share (26.8%), and receptions (85). Unfortunately, that only translated to Johnson finishing as the WR42 in PPR points per game (10.63). Those aren't the results you want to see from a team's WR1. Even so, his zero TD season was somewhat historic. Among NFL WRs in the Super Bowl era who caught zero receiving TDs in a season, Johnson’s 2022 campaign ranks first in PPR points (180.7) and targets, third in receiving yards (882), and sixth in PPR points per game. Not so bad, all things considered. Assuming he even catches a small handful of TDs, Johnson stands to improve in 2023. He's likely to maintain his status as the lead pass-catcher in the Steelers' offense and should be considered a strong flex option for fantasy managers. See where Johnson appears in our latest WR rankings.
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White looks like he's in line for as many touches as he can handle this season. The team dumped Leonard Fournette in the offseason and signed only Chase Edmonds. Tampa Bay also didn't draft a RB, adding only undrafted free agents Sean Tucker and Ronnie Brown. So what's not to like about White? He wasn't good last year. Among 51 RBs who carried 90+ times, White ranked 46th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 41st in elusive rating and 45th in rush yards over expected per attempt. An O-line that ranked just 28th in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards didn't help. That group could improve, with C Ryan Jensen back healthy and second-round rookie G Cody Mauch entering the mix. But that group doesn't look likely to be a strength. The QB switch should mean a higher rushing rate. The Bucs ranked last in the league in run rate each of the past two years. Expect that to change with Tom Brady gone. So White could be set for big touch volume, which would make him at least decent as a fantasy option, even if he remains inefficient. But it's also possible we get surprising production from some other member(s) of the backfield. And Tampa Bay could still add a RB. White makes plenty of sense low in RB2 territory in the 2023 RB rankings. Just don't reach for him too early.
The Bengals and RB Joe Mixon have agreed to a restructured contract that will keep him with the team through 2023. There have been rumors all off-season of Cincinnati dumping Mixon’s big contract, but the restructure saves the team cap space. It also locks him in as the continued backfield leader and a value in fantasy football drafts. Mixon has sat high in our fantasy football rankings the whole time.
Bills beat reporter Sal Capaccio projects RB James Cook to roughly match Devin Singletary’s 2022 workload. The former Bill tallied 177 carries; 38 catches. “He [Cook] is not the biggest guy. He’s 190 pounds…not many running backs are that slight,” Carpaccio said on the Outside the Gridiron podcast. “He can still run between the tackles but you don’t want to do that too much to him. You don’t want him taking a pounding. That’s why the Bills signed Damien Harris.” Per Capaccio, the Bills entered the offseason determined to improve their short-yardage offense – a sentiment confirmed by the signing of Harris. His arrival – and the presence of Josh Allen – brings uncertainty to Cook’s TD outlook. Head to Cook's player page, and you'll see he's projected for only 5 total scores.
The Jets have agreed to a four-year, $96 million extension with DT Quinnen Williams, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The deal includes $66 million in guarantees. The fifth-year veteran is coming off his best season to date and still won't turn 26 until December. You can find Williams among the top DTs in our IDP rankings.
Speaking with NFL Network's Peter Schrager, Lions GM Brad Holmes assessed his new backfield. "When you look at it systematically, I do think we'll be better offensively," Holmes said. "That's no knock on the contributions that those other two guys gave us. [D’Andre] Swift is a dynamic player and Jamaal [Williams] was a great leader for us, and he did so much for us. He had a great season. But I think [David] Montgomery and Jahmyr [Gibbs] are different backs. Montgomery does a little bit more in the passing game. And being able to add Gibbs, he's just so dynamic as a receiver. Look, he's a home run hitter as a running back, that's the easy part. What he does as a receiver -- he runs routes like a receiver." Holmes added that Gibbs is a “special weapon” who reminds him of Christian McCaffrey and Marshall Faulk. See where both Lions sit in our 2023 RB rankings.
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a top-25 finish among WRs in fantasy points per game and has had an impressive offseason by all accounts. But his target volume is a concern heading into 2023. Aiyuk drew a 22.0% target share last year -- 32nd among WRs. But that dipped to 20.1% in 14 games with a healthy WR Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk saw just 17.9% of 49ers targets in seven games with Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey. Samuel, McCaffrey, and TE George Kittle are back this year. And San Francisco figures to remain a run-leaning offense regardless of who's playing QB. That has Aiyuk sitting a bit lower in the WR Rankings than his talent would dictate.
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier ran efficiently as a 2022 rookie. Among 61 RBs with 70+ carries (including the playoffs), he ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in Pro Football Focus' elusive rating, and tied for 12th in yards per carry. He also ranked ninth in NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry, among 36 RBs with 90+ carries. Allgeier took over the backfield after the Week 14 bye, averaging 19.8 carries per game and claiming 56% of the team's rushing attempts over the final four games. He's not going to get anywhere near that after Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall. But it's fair to wonder whether Allgeier will cut too far into Robinson's workload to allow the rookie to pay off his Round 1 fantasy ADP. We'll watch for signals of the work share plan through training camp and preseason. Expect Allgeier to remain more handcuff than standalone fantasy option. You can read more about his outlook in our 2023 RB rankings.
Titans insider Jim Wyatt writes that RB Tyjae Spears “was among the team’s offseason standouts.” Wyatt specifically notes the rookie’s “shiftiness and speed.” Those traits certainly showed up on his Tulane tape. Then, Spears confirmed his exciting athleticism at the combine with a 91st-percentile vertical jump and an 87th-percentile broad jump (per MockDraftable). Currently the No. 2 RB behind Derrick Henry, Spears is a late-round handcuff worth circling on your cheat sheet.
Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic suggested in a recent report that he expects RB Michael Carter to be RB2 on the Jets' depth chart to open the 2023 season. Rosenblatt also noted that the possibility of free agent RB Dalvin Cook signing with the team "looms large" in the room, though Carter is "the most experienced, popular in the locker room and is generally a quality pass-catcher." It'll be fascinating to see how long he can hold onto this job assuming Rosenblatt is correct. Last season was not great for Carter. He opened the first six full games averaging 11.8 touches per game spelling fellow RB Breece Hall. Though after Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 vs. the Broncos, Carter's involvement dipped to just 7.6 touches per game. He was essentially phased out of a dysfunctional offense late in the year, eventually falling behind 2022 UDFA Zonovan Knight. Among 45 RBs with 100+ carries, Carter ranked 43rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 45th in yards per carry, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. On top of that, he only finished as a top-24 RB in PPR scoring in four games. Perhaps fantasy managers would be best to avoid Carter and bet on rookie Israel Abanikanda, a player who Rosenblatt predicts will inherit the #2 job as the season unfolds, instead. See where each of these backs appear in our current RB rankings.
ESPN's Dianna Russini hears that Giants RB Saquon Barkley's availability for the start of the season is "in serious question" if he doesn't get a long-term deal from the Giants. Barkley was slapped with the franchise tag earlier this offseason, and the two sides "remain at a stalemate," per Russini. The deadline to sign a long-term deal is July 17 at 4 pm ET. We'll see where this goes over the next few days and if Barkley reports to the team absent a long-term deal. We've seen him drop to the back half of Round 2 in recent drafts. He's worth the risk at that point.
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