Jaguars RB Travis Etienne got a big boost in rushing volume after the team quit on RB James Robinson last season. He went from 32% carry share over the first six games to 61.4% from Week 7 on. But Etienne actually lost target share after Robinson's demotion. He drew 8.9% over the first six games vs. just 6.5% the rest of the way. That's a legitimate concern heading into Year 3, especially after Jacksonville selected RB Tank Bigsby in Round 3. The rookie claimed a class-leading 15.3% target share at Auburn in 2022. If Bigsby beats -- or even matches -- Etienne in receiving opportunities, the incumbent's ceiling would come down. Etienne's RB13 ADP matches his current spot in our PPR rankings. But there's downside risk from that position.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott missed 5 games last year with a right thumb fracture. Back healthy, he’s looking to play a full season for the first time since 2019. As Nick Harris of the Cowboys’ official site writes, “the new offense [with HC Mike McCarthy as play caller]… has been constructed completely around Dak.” Prescott, with two years remaining on his current deal, might also receive an extension this summer. Currently, he’s scheduled to count nearly $60 million against Dallas’ 2024 cap. Before then, Dak will look to capitalize on the arrival of WR Brandin Cooks, who gives this unit a more dynamic 11 personnel. Prescott ultimately projects as a low-end QB1 for fantasy managers.
The Patriots have agreed to a three-year extension with WR DeVante Parker that could be worth up to $33 million, according to multiple reports. The new pact replaces what would have been the final year on the contract Parker brought with him from Miami. ESPN's Mike Reiss reports that the deal lowers his 2023 base salary but offers per-game roster bonuses that can double that number. The contract also includes incentives, among them achieving All-Pro status. We're not betting on Parker reaching that level and thus aren't counting on him attaining the contract's full value. But he's probably more central to New England's 2023 plans -- at least -- than Parker's end-of-draft ADP to date on FFPC indicates. He's a no-risk stash late in best ball drafts, especially when you've already cheaply added QB Mac Jones. See where Parker sits in our WR rankings.
Browns TE David Njoku awoke from his fantasy slumber and finished as TE11 overall with 10.1 points per game in 2022. He hadn't finished that high since being the TE9 in 2018 and has only two other career top-25 fantasy seasons to his name. Fantasy managers looking for a high-end contributor at TE in 2023 outside the elite tier of players should look no further than Njoku. The former 1st-round pick finished 2022 12th among TEs in target share (18.2%), 13th in air yards share (15.2%), and fifth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Though most of that production came with QB Jacoby Brissett in the lineup last season, we feel optimistic about QB Deshaun Watson's chances at improving in 2023, which will certainly keep Njoku among the highest opportunity earners at the position. Take a look at where he we have him projected in our current TE rankings.
Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks aims to rebound from a down 2022. The veteran tallied 57 catches, 699 yards, and 3 TDs while missing 4 games. Cooks’ efficiency metrics stunk, but it’s tough to knock him, given Houston’s awful QB play. A March trade to Dallas gives new life to his fantasy value. The Cowboys handed Cooks ~$12 million guaranteed, so they’re confident in him performing as the No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb. Based on work at OTAs, Cooks’ speed remains a dangerous trait. “Not only the speed, but I think he's an exceptional route runner,” HC Mike McCarthy said via ESPN. “He has a great understanding of routes and time clocks, and specifics of getting in and out of breaks.” See where he slots in our WR rankings.
WR Davante Adams' usage changed considerably in his first year with the Raiders. He was mostly a short-range target in his final three seasons in Green Bay, registering average target depths of 10.0, 8.9, and 9.6 yards. He caught 71.2% of those targets and averaged 12.2 yards per catch. In Vegas last year, Adams posted an 11.8-yard average target depth. As a result, his catch rate sunk to 55.6%, but he set a career high with 15.2 yards per catch. Adams’ 8.4 yards per target last year was down a bit from his 8.8 yards over those final three seasons with the Packers. But it still ranked 30th among 85 WRs with 50+ targets. The concern heading into 2023 is that new starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo has never ranked better than 16th in Pro Football Focus' deep passing grade. So Adams' efficiency could suffer if he continues working downfield as much as he did last season. We'll keep a close eye on the situation throughout the summer.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts ranked just 22nd among TEs in PPR points per game last season. But the underlying numbers show a lot more upside. Pitts ranked second among all TEs in target share, trailing only Mark Andrews. He ranks 14th all-time among TEs in receiving yards through two seasons, despite tying for just 28th in receptions and 137th in games played. Poor QB play and a high run rate clearly hurt last season. Pitts fared worse in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per route, and passer rating on balls thrown his way vs. 2021. Atlanta ran at the second-highest rate for the season. But the neutral pass rate climbed from 32nd in the league with Marcus Mariota behind center to 24th in Desmond Ridder's starts. The 2021 Falcons ranked 14th in neutral pass rate, in HC Arthur Smith's first season and with QB Matt Ryan. We're not betting on a return to that level, especially after the first-round selection of RB Bijan Robinson. But you should bet on the Falcons passing at least a little more in 2023. And the quality of passing should improve at least a little. Combine that with the talent Pitts has already displayed and an ADP lower than last year's, and you have a redraft bet with modest risk and plenty of upside. See where Pitts stands in our 2023 TE rankings.
It looks like the market for free agent RB Dalvin Cook is heating up. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Dolphins have made a formal contract offer to the veteran back. Jackson went on to say that “there's mutual interest" and that Cook "has called Miami a 'perfect fit'.” NFL Network's Tom Pelissero also recently spoke about Cook on The Rich Eisen Show, stating that the veteran has received "multiple offers" from various teams, so the Fins will not be alone in their pursuit. Cook showed some signs of decline last season, averaging his fewest rushing yards per game (69.0) since 2017 and losing significant target share. Wherever he ends up, we're probably not talking about a slam-dunk RB1 in fantasy anymore. But he should have a role worthy of mid-round draft consideration. Cook landing in Miami would throw an already busy backfield -- Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert, and 2023 rookie De'Von Achane -- into an absolute frenzy. Keep an eye out for further updates.
Per ESPN's Turron Davenport, Titans WR Treylon Burks is "playing at a different speed from his rookie season" in OTAs and minicamps this offseason. Davenport also notes that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is highly comfortable throwing to the 2022 first-round pick "whether he is wide open or in tight coverage," which is certainly exciting to hear for fantasy managers. Burks' rookie season was marred by injury (turf toe in Week 4, concussion in Week 12, six total missed games), though he closed 2022 on a high note. Burks drew 6+ targets in five of his final six healthy games, catching 4+ balls in four of those five games while averaging 13.7 yards per catch over that entire span. Assuming better health, he could be a sneaky PPR value pick in drafts this year. We feel very good about Burks' chances to lead the Titans' offense in targets and be a high-volume receiver without a lot of other talent around him. See where Burks comes out in our current WR rankings.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero suggested in a recent interview on The Rich Eisen Show that Raiders RB Josh Jacobs could hold out into the regular season. "If there’s not a long-term deal I don’t anticipate Jacobs being there at the start of training camp and I don’t know that he shows up Week 1," Pelissero said. Jacobs was slapped with the franchise tag earlier this offseason, which would pay him $10.1 million this year. Skipping training camp wouldn't cost him any money, but he'd forfeit one-seventeenth of that salary for each game he misses. Jacobs and the Raiders have until July 17 to agree to a long-term deal. Until we have a resolution to this situation, Jacobs carries elevated risk in fantasy drafts. RB Zamir White would be the favorite to take over early-down work if Jacobs holds out into the regular season. RB Ameer Abdullah is still around to handle passing downs.
Colts WR Michael Pittman got plenty of target and reception volume last season. He finished 16th among WRs in target share and 10th in the league in receptions. But his yardage efficiency tumbled. Pittman's yards per catch fell from 12.3 in 2021 to 9.3, with poor QB play a (the?) primary culprit. His average depth of target fell by more than 2 yards, with QBs Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles all ranking 28th or worse in Pro Football Focus passing grade. Pittman also produced his lowest mark yet, though, in yards after catch per reception. According to PFF, he tied for just 53rd in yards per route and ranked 44th in receiving grade, among 97 WRs with 40+ targets. Pittman did, at least, rank a decent 26th in targets per route, matching his 2021 ranking. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson should be good for Pittman's aDOT. But we'd bet on the WR coming down from last year's 70.2% catch rate. Overall, it's tough to bet on big upside for Pittman from his WR3-level ADP. Read more about the outlook for Indy's lead wideout and see where he lands in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.
The Cardinals "intend on using a lot of two-TE sets this season," according to Jess Root of Cards Wire. That would mean significant time together on the field for second-year TE Trey McBride and TE Zach Ertz, once the vet's ready following his ACL recovery. But it would also potentially challenge the playing time for Arizona WRs not named Marquise Brown. The Cardinals already tied for ninth in the league in most "12 personnel" snaps (two TEs) last season. So we might not actually see an escalation this year. But we'll be watching the camp and preseason tendencies for the fantasy outlooks on WRs Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson. McBride and Ertz are both going late enough in best ball drafts to carry some upside, though we're not specifically targeting either player. See where all these Cardinals land in our PPR rankings.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce will turn 34 in October but has shown no signs of decline. He just registered his second-best Pro Football Focus receiving grade and fourth-most yards per route run of his career last season. Those marks ranked first and second, respectively, among 32 qualifying TEs. From a fantasy perspective, Kelce easily led all TEs in PPR, half-PPR, and non-PPR points. He's now finished as a top-2 fantasy TE in seven straight seasons, including six No. 1 finishes. Just how high should Kelce go in 2023 fantasy drafts? Check out where he sits in the overall rankings.
Saints TE Foster Moreau was a "frequent target" of QB Derek Carr in OTAs and minicamp, according to ESPN's Katherine Terrell, who named Moreau the Saints' surprise offseason standout. Moreau has worked with the first- and second-team offenses and "could compete with Juwan Johnson for snaps as the team's No. 1 or No. 2 tight end," Terrell writes. We're currently projecting Johnson to lead Saints TEs in fantasy points but will keep a close eye on the situation throughout the summer. If nothing else, the gap between Johnson and Moreau shouldn't be as big as it's been in recent fantasy drafts. Johnson is TE17 in FFPC ADP, while Moreau is TE41.
ESPN's Rob Demovsky named Packers WR Romeo Doubs the team's surprise offseason standout. "Doubs has seemingly become Jordan Love's go-to guy," Demovsky writes. "Whether it's in scripted team periods or move-the-ball drills like the two-minute simulation, Doubs has been targeted time and again." It's worth remembering that Doubs was awesome last preseason, with most of his production coming from Love. And while his rookie season wasn't as impressive as teammate Christian Watson's, Doubs got off to a solid start before a midseason high-ankle sprain got in the way. With rookie Jayden Reed joining Doubs and Watson, this young Packers WR corps will be worth monitoring closely in training camp and preseason.
ESPN's Josh Weinfuss named WR Michael Wilson the Cardinals' surprise offseason standout. "The rookie third-rounder has impressed his coaches and teammates with his route running and talent," Weinfuss writes. Wilson got plenty of first-team reps this spring and "could be a factor in Arizona's offense from Day 1 of the season," Weinfuss adds. The release of WR DeAndre Hopkins opens up tons of opportunity in Arizona's passing game. And, more specifically, a need for a big-bodied outside receiver. The 6'1, 213-pound Wilson fits the bill. He qualifies as an intriguing end-of-draft flier for now. We'll keep a close eye on his progress when training camp opens next month.
ESPN’s Adam Teicher believes rookie RB Deneric Prince could push for snaps “if he shows an aptitude for pass protection” in training camp. Prince, a rookie UDFA, caught only 17 balls across 3 seasons at Tulsa. Yet his hands reportedly stood out in spring practices. It’s hard to see the 23-year-old taking receiving work away from Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but we’ll keep a close eye on this position group next month. Note: Isiah Pacheco is expected to miss part of training camp following offseason surgeries.
Lions QB Hendon Hooker is “expected” to start training camp on the non-football injury list, per Dave Birkett of The Detroit Free Press. Birkett expects a midseason return, which would put the 25-year-old ~11.5 months out from his November ACL tear. Sitting behind Jared Goff, our dynasty QB rankings show Hooker's just a stash.
Poor QB play limited Commanders WR Jahan Dotson in 2022. Still, he flashed true Round 1 talent with 14.9 yards per catch and 7 scores. He did so despite missing five games with an early-season hamstring injury. Year two brings a QB change with Sam Howell likely to start. Washington will also break in new OC Eric Bieniemy. “Exciting. … A lot of down-the-field plays," Dotson said of Bieniemy’s offense, per The Athletic. “We’re going to stretch the field, make the defense really work.” Dotson should see plenty of downfield opportunities alongside Howell, who wasn’t shy about throwing deep at North Carolina. The 23-year-old sits just outside WR3 range in our 2023 WR rankings.
The Chiefs "hope" RB Isiah Pacheco will be ready to return by the "middle" of training camp, according to The Athletic's Nate Taylor. Pacheco continues to rehab from offseason surgeries to repair a torn labrum and broken bone in his hand. He missed all of spring workouts, and it sounds like he won't be cleared to return until some time in August. His health will be worth watching closely next month. Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and undrafted rookie Deneric Prince are the next men up in Kansas City's backfield.
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