The Falcons reached a three-year deal with EDGE Kaden Elliss worth $21.5 million, with $11 million of that guaranteed. It's a big opportunity for a guy who did nothing across his first three seasons with the Saints. Thrust into the lineup last year, the former seventh-round pick delivered seven sacks and 10 QB hits while starting 11 games. Atlanta is clearly looking to him as a full-time starter, but Elliss has plenty yet to prove. He totaled 23 tackles and 1 sack over his first three years in the NFL. Elliss also sports below-average size and speed score for his position. Perhaps something bigger lies ahead, but we're not overly excited about his fantasy prospects as of now.
The Vikings are signing EDGE Marcus Davenport to a one-year, $13 million deal, according to multiple reports. It's a good-sized "prove it" opportunity for the former first-round pick, who managed just a half-sack, 2 tackles for loss and 8 QB hits over 15 appearances with the Saints last season. Davenport topped out at 9 sacks (in 11 games) the year before but clearly disappointed across five years in New Orleans. Injuries played a big role. So we'll see whether he can hit 2023 healthy, stay there, and repay the Vikings for the opportunity. His arrival could signal the departure of EDGE Za'Darius Smith, who recently asked the team to let him pursue trade opportunities.
CBS' Josina Anderson reports that Saints QB Jameis Winston is "finalizing" a deal to stay with the Saints. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that it's a one-year agreement worth "up to" $8 million. Rapoport adds that Winston faced "no starting opportunities," which would explain the QB settling for a backup spot behind QB Derek Carr. There would be fantasy upside to Winston if Carr goes down. But it's bad news that the 29-year-old couldn't get a better shot anywhere else just a year after opening 2022 as the New Orleans starter. This comes at the same time as the Buccaneers are rumored to be interested in Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett -- just to add some context. Don't expect big things from Winston going forward.
The Broncos are re-signing LB Alex Singleton to a three-year, $18 million deal that includes $9 million guaranteed, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. It's a surprising move. Singleton went undrafted in the 2015 draft class and didn't play in an NFL game until 2019. He bounced into and out of the Eagles lineup through 2020 and 2021 before they let him walk. Even last season, his playing time fluctuated throughout the season. Singleton is coming off his best pro season, though, and has been a tackle monster whenever on the field. Fortunately, we fantasy players don't have to worry about whether this is a good move for the Broncos. We can just take advantage of the tackle collection when he's on the field. So Singleton now looks better than expected for dynasty rosters. And he's a candidate for the top 24 when our 2023 IDP rankings roll out.
The Giants have agreed to a four-year pact with LB Bobby Okereke. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that it's worth $40 million total, with $22 million of that guaranteed. It clearly positions Okereke as the lead LB for a team that has lacked such a guy since Blake Martinez tore an ACL early in 2021. Okereke spent the past two seasons starting for the Colts, racking up 283 total tackles. He has also defensed 17 passes across four seasons. Okereke sits among the top 15 LBs in our dynasty rankings. Don't be surprised if he lands inside the top 10 when our 2023 IDP rankings come out.
The Dolphins have agreed to a two-year, $11 million deal with LB David Long Jr., according to multiple reports. Long spent nearly all of the past two seasons starting for the Titans, though he lost 11 games to injuries over that span. Long has been productive -- fantasy wise -- since stepping into the lineup. He has a shot to be the top fantasy producer in a Miami LB corps that has seen Jerome Baker lead the scoring over the past several years. But Baker's play -- and playing time -- has wavered. Long doesn't figure to excite fantasy players, so expect to be able to select him later in 2023 redraft IDP leagues.
The Commanders have agreed to a one-year deal with LB Cody Barton that NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports is fully guaranteed. We don't know how much money yet, and it's likely not a number that locks Barton into a starting role. But there's room for him to earn starter snaps in a defense that might lose LB Cole Holcomb in free agency. Jamin Davis should be the best current bet for full-time snaps among Washington LBs, heading into his third season. Barton didn't play very well in his first starting turn with Seattle in 2022, which is why the team is letting him walk.
The Panthers have reached a deal with former Bengals S Vonn Bell, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Carolina still has S Xavier Woods, who signed for three years as a free agent last offseason. The team lists Jeremy Chinn as a safety as well, but he moves around the formation. According to Pro Football Focus, Chinn actually played more snaps at slot CB than anywhere else last season. So expect the Panthers to have room for all three players in their primary defensive alignments. Cincinnati, meanwhile, must replace both safeties. Dax Hill -- a late first-round pick last April -- should fill one spot. We'll see about the other. Hill gets a boost in the dynasty rankings with these departures.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the 49ers have reached a one-year deal with QB Sam Darnold. The quick signing tells us that San Francisco isn't sure QB Brock Purdy will be ready for the regular season. If the 49ers did expect Purdy's repaired right arm to be all good, then there would seem little reason for them to prioritize a third QB on the open market and little reason for Darnold to sign so quickly. Why settle for a locked-in No. 3 role on the first day of "legal tampering" rather than wait to see what other QB-needier teams might say. Of course, we're betting Trey Lance will open the year as the starter. The fact that Lance remains unproven heading into his third year -- and is coming off his own serious injury -- enhances the upside for Darnold. In addition to Purdy, HC Kyle Shanahan's offense has helped QBs Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens generate good efficiency. Darnold would be interesting for fantasy if pressed into duty. That makes him stashable in deeper dynasty leagues.
The Browns are agreed to a three-year deal with former Texans EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The pact could be worth as much as $22 million. A fifth-round pick of the Rams back in 2018, Okoronkwo finally got the first eight starts of his career last year in Houston. He supplied 5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss and 11 QB hits while playing 44% of the snaps. Cleveland clearly believes there's more coming in Okoronkwo's age-28 season (and beyond). The money indicates he's expected to start opposite EDGE Myles Garrett, which can't hurt. Still Okoronkwo sports just a 45th-percentile speed score for the position and might have a limited playing-time ceiling because of his size (just 253 pounds). He's a potential late-round IDP option for 2023 fantasy football drafts. But we're not overly excited about his upside.
The Lions are bringing LB Alex Anzalone back on a three-year, $18.75 million deal, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That's particularly noteworthy money for Anzalone, who played each of the past two seasons for Detroit on one-year pacts. He got just $1.75 million in 2021 and then $2.5 million last year. But Anzalone increased his playing time each season vs. what he got across four seasons in New Orleans. That included playing 95.1% of the snaps across 17 games last year. Anzalone also saw boosts in his Pro Football Focus grading across categories and cracked the top 30 LBs in fantasy points. Expect him to remain the Lions' best bet for full playing time at the position, heading into his age-29 season. There's still room for 2022 rookie Malcolm Rodriguez to grow his role, though, vs. where Rodriguez finished the season.
The Falcons have agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal with S Jessie Bates III, according to multiple sources. Bates is coming off arguably his worst season, his fifth with Cincinnati. Bates' final two years with the Bengals were marred by contract squabbles, as he sought an extension and then played 2022 on the franchise tag. His tackles dwindled, despite no significant change to his role. And Bates matched the lowest Pro Football Focus coverage grade of his career, just two seasons after he led all safeties in overall PFF grade. Atlanta clearly believes the 26-year-old will rebound. We're betting he'll take over the role Jaylinn Hawkins played last year and start next to former second-round pick Richie Grant. The Falcons' safety roles proved nearly interchangeable in terms of where they lined up, which could mean a little more time in the box for Bates. Like Atlanta, we don't have any real long-term concern for Bates' performance. Check out where he sits in our dynasty rankings.
The Bears are signing LB Tremaine Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million deal, according to multiple reports. It's the second starter-LB pact of the day for Chicago, who reached agreement with T.J. Edwards earlier. That clearly positions Edmunds and Edwards as the full-timers for the near future. Bet on Edmunds taking over MLB and Edwards slotting on the weak side. The additions push 2022 rookie Jack Sanborn back into a reserve role. Expect both Edmunds and Edwards to land among the top 30 when our 2023 IDP rankings come out. Both already live in that territory in our dynasty rankings.
The Bengals are re-signing LB Germaine Pratt for three years at $21 million, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Pratt's playing time fluctuated a bit in 2022, his fourth season with the team. His 75.6% snap share across 15 regular-season games marked a career high and his third straight increase in that category. Pratt also played 83% or more of the snaps in each of the final five contests, including the three playoff contests. Cincinnati also significantly decreased Pratt's special-teams role in 2022. All of this points to Pratt potentially delivering more consistent IDP value in 2023. We boosted him up the dynasty rankings on this contract news.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders have reportedly agreed to a three-year, $67.5 million deal. The former 49er will receive $34 million in guaranteed money and reunite with HC Josh McDaniels, dating back to their days together with the Patriots. Garoppolo has struggled with various injuries over the course of his career but has played fairly well when healthy. We expect him to maintain QB2-level production in Las Vegas as more of a game manager that's better for your real-life NFL team than your fantasy team. That said, Garoppolo kept pace with QB Derek Carr, the man he's replacing, in fantasy PPG from Week 5 through Week 12 (16.3 and 16.4, respectively) before a foot injury ended his season. Plus, anyone paired up with WR Davante Adams carries some appeal in superflex leagues. This move doesn't prohibit the Raiders from pursuing a younger QB in the NFL Draft this April, but at least they have a bridge plan in place at a minimum.
Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Dolphins signed QB Mike White to a 2-year deal worth “up to” $16 million. It’s solid backup money for the former Jet, who’s proven capable as a spot-starter over the past 2 seasons. Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history suggests we’ll likely see White on the field at some point in 2023.
Free agent QB Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos have agreed to terms on a two-year contract worth $10 million. This deal includes $5 million in guaranteed money and locks Stidham into serving as QB Russell Wilson's backup. Stidham started two games with the Raiders at the conclusion of the 2022 NFL season, tallying 584 passing yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs. He should carry some appeal as a depth option in superflex leagues should any injury occur to Wilson in what should be a much-improved offense under new HC Sean Payton. Not all backup QBs are worth spending too much time thinking about for fantasy purposes, but Stidham is fairly intriguing here if nothing else.
The 49ers have agreed to a four-year deal with DT Javon Hargrave. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that it's worth $84 million overall, with $40 million of that guaranteed at signing. Hargrave delivered a career-high 11 sacks in 2022, his third season with the Eagles after arriving as a free agent. He racked up 34 QB hits over the past two years after topping out at 8 over his first five seasons. Hargrave's arrival could challenge the role of fourth-year DT Javon Kinlaw. The former first-round pick played in just 10 total games over the past two seasons because of injuries. Arik Armstead remains as well. Hargrave played 64.4% and 68.4% of the snaps over the past two years, so there's room for a three-man rotation. Hargrave should be the first (and maybe only in most cases) among the three to go in 2023 IDP drafts.
The Bears have agreed to a three-year deal with LB T.J. Edwards, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The length of the deal and timing -- right at the start of "legal tampering" -- points to Edwards taking a starting role in Chicago. The Bears have 2022 starter Nicholas Morrow hitting free agency, so there's room for 2022 rookie Jack Sanborn to remain in the starting lineup with Edwards. We'll see, of course, how the rest of free agency and the NFL Draft play out. The deal solidifies Edwards' short-term dynasty outlook, giving him a bump up our dynasty rankings. We'd hang on to Sanborn for now as well. He proved quite productive across five full outings after Roquan Smith left, before an ankle injury cost Sanborn the final three games.
The Patriots are trading TE Jonnu Smith to the Falcons, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The move primarily looks like a salary dump for New England. Smith caught just 55 passes at 9.8 yards per reception across two seasons after signing a $50 million deal as a 2021 free agent. Atlanta might seem like an awkward fit for him as well, with TE Kyle Pitts already on hand. But the third-year Falcon is more receiver than TE. He has played just 21.8% and 25.6% of pass snaps from an inline position the past two years. Smith, meanwhile, has never run less than 52.6% from there. He was inline on 59.5% of routes last year and topped 64% in each of his first three NFL seasons. He spent those three years -- plus one more -- playing under current Falcons HC Arthur Smith. In Tennessee, Smith served as TEs coach over Smith's first two years, and then OC for the other two. Smith increased his receptions every season there but topped out with a 41-448-8 receiving line in 2020. It'll be similarly tough for Smith to find much fantasy value in Atlanta's run-heavy offense. And we're not downgrading Pitts' outlook for the short or long term on Smith's arrival. Check our dynasty rankings to see how optimistic we remain on Pitts. Smith's departure from New England, meanwhile, certainly can't hurt TE Hunter Henry's opportunities.
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