Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 16

             

Welcome to Week 16’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

Below you'll find the matchup data that we use when formulating those rankings. Taking a look through it will help you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 16 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 16!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Bears (48.0)
2. Buccaneers at Cowboys (47.5)
t-3. Rams at Jets (47.0)
t-3. Cardinals at Panthers (47.0)
t-5. Browns at Bengals (46.5)
t-5. Eagles at Commanders (46.5)
t-5. Patriots at Bills (46.5)

         

Lowest Game Totals

t-27. Titans at Colts (42.5)
t-27. Vikings at Seahawks (42.5)
t-27. Texans at Chiefs (42.5)
30. Saints at Packers (42.0)
31. Broncos at Chargers (41.5)
32. Jaguars at Raiders (40.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Bills (29.5)
2. Packers (28.5)
3. Bengals (27.75)
4. Lions (27.5)
t-5. Cardinals (26.25)
t-5. Falcons (26.25)

     

Lowest Implied Points

t-27. Broncos (19.0)
t-27. Steelers (19.0)
29. Browns (18.25)
30. Giants (16.75)
31. Patriots (15.5)
32. Saints (14.0)

 

Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected

Here's where every team stands in plays per game, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and Pass Rate Over Expected over the last five weeks:

   

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Lions (64.5)
2. Eagles (64.4)
3. Bengals (64.1)
t-4. Buccaneers (63.9)
t-4. Bills (63.9)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Jaguars (60.8)
t-29. Jets (60.6)
t-29. Colts (60.6)
31. 49ers (60.1)
32. Saints (59.2)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

       

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Giants at Falcons (25.4 seconds)
2. Browns at Bengals (26.4 seconds)
3. Jaguars at Raiders (26.9 seconds)
4. Cardinals at Panthers (27.0 seconds)
5. Eagles at Commanders (27.2 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

t-12. Lions at Bears (28.8 seconds)
t-12. Vikings at Seahawks (28.8 seconds)
14. Patriots at Bills (29.1 seconds)
15. Saints at Packers (29.9 seconds)
16. 49ers at Dolphins (31.0 seconds)

        

Weather Concerns

Lions at Bears

30 degrees with 10-15 mph winds and gusts up around 25 mph. "Feels-like" temperature will be around 20 degrees. It's not quite enough for us to adjust projections, though. It's worth noting that this game still has an over/under of 48 points -- highest of the week.

Vikings at Seahawks

This game will be wet. The forecast in Seattle calls for a 100% chance of rain at kickoff, dropping to 62% by the end of the game. The rain is expected to be relatively light, though. And wind won't be a problem. They aren't ideal conditions for the offenses, but we're not making any major moves in the Week 16 Rankings.

  

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Bills vs. Patriots (+81.6%)
2. Ravens vs. Steelers (+70.1%)
3. Packers vs. Saints (+51.3%)
4. Bengals vs. Browns (50.9%)
5. Cardinals at Panthers (+48.6%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

28. Seahawks vs. Vikings (-2.8%)
29. Dolphins vs. 49ers (-3.3%)
30. Titans at Colts (-7.6%)
31. Panthers vs. Cardinals (-7.7%)
32. Bears vs. Lions (-11.3%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Aidan O'Connell vs. Jaguars (+33%)
2. Cooper Rush vs. Buccaneers (+30%)
3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson at Bengals (+18%)
4. Kyler Murray at Panthers (+16%)
5. Baker Mayfield at Cowboys (+14%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Spencer Rattler at Packers (-13%)
29. Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles (-17%)
30. Jared Goff at Bears (-18%)
31. Brock Purdy at Dolphins (-19%)
32. Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers (-20%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Lions at Bears (+18.2%)
2. Bills vs. Patriots (+15.6%)
3. Packers vs. Saints (+12.5%)
4. Cardinals at Panthers (+9.6%)
5. Eagles at Commanders (+8.2%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

28. Raiders vs. Jaguars (-29.3%)
29. Chargers vs. Broncos (-31.3%)
30. Texans at Chiefs (-31.4%)
31. Seahawks vs. Vikings (-31.9%)
32. Patriots at Bills (-40.0%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Cardinals at Panthers (+31%)
2. Patriots at Bills (+28%)
3. Raiders vs. Jaguars (+19%)
4. Lions at Bears (+13%)
5. Falcons vs. Giants (+13%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Bears vs. Lions (-13%)
29. Chiefs vs. Texans (-15%)
30. Seahawks vs. Vikings (-22%)
31. Commanders vs. Eagles (-23%)
32. Texans at Chiefs (-34%)

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Seahawks vs. Vikings (+22%)
2. Giants at Falcons (+20%)
3. Raiders vs. Jaguars (+19%)
4. Steelers at Ravens (+18%)
5. Bengals vs. Browns (+14%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Colts vs. Titans (-11%)
29. Panthers vs. Cardinals (-12%)
30. Lions at Bears (-13%)
31. Dolphins vs. 49ers (-16%)
32. Commanders vs. Eagles (-20%)

         

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Jets WRs Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson vs. Rams CBs Akhello Witherspoon, Darious Williams, and Quentin Lake

Jaguars WRs Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington vs. Raiders CBs Decamerion Richardson and Jack Jones

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Jets CB Isaiah Oliver

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Falcons CBs A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes, and Dee Alford

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Jaguars CBs Tyson Campbell and Montaric Brown

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Vikings CBs Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Patriots CB Jonathan Jones

Browns WRs Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman vs. Bengals CBs Cam Taylor-Britt and Josh Newton

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor, and Ugo Amadi

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, and Nazeeh Johnson

Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed

49ers WR Jauan Jennings vs. Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles CBs Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean

Chargers WRs Quentin Johnston vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

   

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Titans at Colts (+39%)
2. Cardinals at Panthers (+27%)
3. Browns at Bengals (+23%)
4. Jaguars at Raiders (+21%)
5. Texans at Chiefs (+19%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Buccaneers at Cowboys (-18%)
29. Bears vs. Lions (-26%)
30. Dolphins vs. 49ers (-28%)
31. Falcons vs. Giants (-29%)
32. Broncos at Chargers (-33%)

     

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bengals vs. Browns (+83%)
2. Colts vs. Titans (+79%)
3. Jaguars at Raiders (+78%)
4. Falcons vs. Giants (+66%)
5. Bills vs. Patriots (+59%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Jets vs. Rams (-34%)
29. Saints at Packers (-47%)
30. Bears vs. Lions (-57%)
31. Patriots at Bills (-73%)
32. Steelers at Ravens (-79%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Jake Moody at Dolphins (+43%)
2. Chad Ryland at Panthers (+31%)
3. Cam Little at Raiders (+27%)
4. Graham Gano at Falcons (+17%)
5. Joshua Karty at Jets (+16%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Jason Myers vs. Vikings (-22%)
29. Ka'imi Fairbairn at Chiefs (-22%)
30. Blake Grupe at Packers (-22%)
31. Joey Slye at Bills (-23%)
32. Justin Tucker vs. Steelers (-23%)