The Bengals and RB Joe Mixon have agreed to a restructured contract that will keep him with the team through 2023. There have been rumors all off-season of Cincinnati dumping Mixon’s big contract, but the restructure saves the team cap space. It also locks him in as the continued backfield leader and a value in fantasy football drafts. Mixon has sat high in our fantasy football rankings the whole time.
Bills beat reporter Sal Capaccio projects RB James Cook to roughly match Devin Singletary’s 2022 workload. The former Bill tallied 177 carries; 38 catches. “He [Cook] is not the biggest guy. He’s 190 pounds…not many running backs are that slight,” Carpaccio said on the Outside the Gridiron podcast. “He can still run between the tackles but you don’t want to do that too much to him. You don’t want him taking a pounding. That’s why the Bills signed Damien Harris.” Per Capaccio, the Bills entered the offseason determined to improve their short-yardage offense – a sentiment confirmed by the signing of Harris. His arrival – and the presence of Josh Allen – brings uncertainty to Cook’s TD outlook. Head to Cook's player page, and you'll see he's projected for only 5 total scores.
The Jets have agreed to a four-year, $96 million extension with DT Quinnen Williams, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The deal includes $66 million in guarantees. The fifth-year veteran is coming off his best season to date and still won't turn 26 until December. You can find Williams among the top DTs in our IDP rankings.
Speaking with NFL Network's Peter Schrager, Lions GM Brad Holmes assessed his new backfield. "When you look at it systematically, I do think we'll be better offensively," Holmes said. "That's no knock on the contributions that those other two guys gave us. [D’Andre] Swift is a dynamic player and Jamaal [Williams] was a great leader for us, and he did so much for us. He had a great season. But I think [David] Montgomery and Jahmyr [Gibbs] are different backs. Montgomery does a little bit more in the passing game. And being able to add Gibbs, he's just so dynamic as a receiver. Look, he's a home run hitter as a running back, that's the easy part. What he does as a receiver -- he runs routes like a receiver." Holmes added that Gibbs is a “special weapon” who reminds him of Christian McCaffrey and Marshall Faulk. See where both Lions sit in our 2023 RB rankings.
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a top-25 finish among WRs in fantasy points per game and has had an impressive offseason by all accounts. But his target volume is a concern heading into 2023. Aiyuk drew a 22.0% target share last year -- 32nd among WRs. But that dipped to 20.1% in 14 games with a healthy WR Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk saw just 17.9% of 49ers targets in seven games with Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey. Samuel, McCaffrey, and TE George Kittle are back this year. And San Francisco figures to remain a run-leaning offense regardless of who's playing QB. That has Aiyuk sitting a bit lower in the WR Rankings than his talent would dictate.
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier ran efficiently as a 2022 rookie. Among 61 RBs with 70+ carries (including the playoffs), he ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in Pro Football Focus' elusive rating, and tied for 12th in yards per carry. He also ranked ninth in NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry, among 36 RBs with 90+ carries. Allgeier took over the backfield after the Week 14 bye, averaging 19.8 carries per game and claiming 56% of the team's rushing attempts over the final four games. He's not going to get anywhere near that after Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall. But it's fair to wonder whether Allgeier will cut too far into Robinson's workload to allow the rookie to pay off his Round 1 fantasy ADP. We'll watch for signals of the work share plan through training camp and preseason. Expect Allgeier to remain more handcuff than standalone fantasy option. You can read more about his outlook in our 2023 RB rankings.
Titans insider Jim Wyatt writes that RB Tyjae Spears “was among the team’s offseason standouts.” Wyatt specifically notes the rookie’s “shiftiness and speed.” Those traits certainly showed up on his Tulane tape. Then, Spears confirmed his exciting athleticism at the combine with a 91st-percentile vertical jump and an 87th-percentile broad jump (per MockDraftable). Currently the No. 2 RB behind Derrick Henry, Spears is a late-round handcuff worth circling on your cheat sheet.
Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic suggested in a recent report that he expects RB Michael Carter to be RB2 on the Jets' depth chart to open the 2023 season. Rosenblatt also noted that the possibility of free agent RB Dalvin Cook signing with the team "looms large" in the room, though Carter is "the most experienced, popular in the locker room and is generally a quality pass-catcher." It'll be fascinating to see how long he can hold onto this job assuming Rosenblatt is correct. Last season was not great for Carter. He opened the first six full games averaging 11.8 touches per game spelling fellow RB Breece Hall. Though after Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 vs. the Broncos, Carter's involvement dipped to just 7.6 touches per game. He was essentially phased out of a dysfunctional offense late in the year, eventually falling behind 2022 UDFA Zonovan Knight. Among 45 RBs with 100+ carries, Carter ranked 43rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 45th in yards per carry, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. On top of that, he only finished as a top-24 RB in PPR scoring in four games. Perhaps fantasy managers would be best to avoid Carter and bet on rookie Israel Abanikanda, a player who Rosenblatt predicts will inherit the #2 job as the season unfolds, instead. See where each of these backs appear in our current RB rankings.
ESPN's Dianna Russini hears that Giants RB Saquon Barkley's availability for the start of the season is "in serious question" if he doesn't get a long-term deal from the Giants. Barkley was slapped with the franchise tag earlier this offseason, and the two sides "remain at a stalemate," per Russini. The deadline to sign a long-term deal is July 17 at 4 pm ET. We'll see where this goes over the next few days and if Barkley reports to the team absent a long-term deal. We've seen him drop to the back half of Round 2 in recent drafts. He's worth the risk at that point.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is "healed up," owner Jim Irsay said Monday on The Pat McAfee Show. Taylor underwent right-ankle surgery early in the offseason to address a lingering issue. He missed offseason workouts, but it sounds like he'll be ready to roll come training camp. We'll keep an eye on Taylor throughout the summer, but that ankle shouldn't impact his 2023 fantasy value.
Bengals HC Zac Taylor has been impressed by how quickly TE Irv Smith has settled into the offense. "Forget about the talent. He's a talented guy. We knew that's what we've seen on tape so that didn't surprise me in anyway," Taylor said. "But I think just how quickly he's integrated himself has been really impressive. That's the most impressive thing about Irv is how quickly he's picked everything up and even taken on the nuances." Smith has a clear path to the starting job in Cincinnati, with only Drew Sample and Devin Asiasi as "competition." The former second-round pick has disappointed through three NFL seasons but turns just 25 in August. The Bengals' high-scoring offense gives Smith a good shot to jumpstart his career. He's an intriguing upside TE2 target late in fantasy drafts.
Lions QB coach Mark Brunell gave a progress update on rookie Hendon Hooker. Hooker recently said he’s “progressing really well” in his left ACL rehab. "If he didn't have [a great work ethic], he wouldn't be here. He's a smart player, puts the time in. The most important thing is him getting strong and healthy," Brunell told The Detroit News. "But I'm really pleased with him. As far as the meetings are concerned, we throw a bunch of questions at those rookies and try to put them in a tough spot. And he always does a very good job, and it's very clear that he's putting the time in." Hooker remains a dynasty stash.
Saints WR Chris Olave is a tough nut to crack regarding his 2023 outlook. Olave finished as the WR27 in PPR points per game and ranked 21st among all WRs in target share as a rookie last season, garnering 25.6% of Saints targets over his 15 games. His 2.42 yards per route also ranked seventh among 80 WRs with 50+ targets in 2022. It’s clear that Olave made the best of his team situation and can produce at a high level. The issue is, how much better can he be? New QB Derek Carr is a likely upgrade, but he isn’t a strong deep-ball passer. According to PFF, Carr’s 39.4% adjusted completion rate ranked just 24th among 36 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield) last year. Dalton ranked 34th by contrast. This is an important factor considering 23.7% of Olave’s targets last year were 20+ yard deep shots. A healthy WR Michael Thomas could also be an issue in 2023, though Olave’s target share was slightly higher over the first three weeks of last season when Thomas was healthy than it was from Week 4 on without him. We expect Olave to have a strong sophomore season, though we’re cautious. See where he stands in our current WR rankings.
Broncos TE Greg Dulcich revamped his offseason workout plan "with a focus on increased flexibility," according to The Athletic's Nick Kosmider. The hope is that'll solve the hamstring problems that Dulcich dealt with throughout his rookie season. (Check out Dulcich's full injury history.) When he was healthy last year, Dulcich scored as a top-10 fantasy TE. With better health -- and a likely improved Denver offense under new HC Sean Payton -- Dulcich has breakout potential in 2023.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf underwhelmed last year, finishing 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR. Blame bad TD luck. Metcalf scored a career-low six times on a career-low 6.7% TD rate. He found the end zone on 13.4% of his receptions over his first three seasons. And it wasn't for lack of opportunity last year. Metcalf ranked second among WRs with 27 red-zone targets, sixth in targets inside the 10-yard line, and first in end-zone targets. He's a safe bet for more TDs in 2023 -- and potentially A LOT more TDs. We currently project Metcalf for 8.2 scores.
Beat writer Bill Huber believes the Packers “might want to lean more on [Aaron] Jones” in 2023. Huber cites the transition to QB Jordan Love and the trust from HC Matt LaFleur. “[I] can’t say enough great things about him, just the man he is, the player he is, the son he is, the father he is,” LaFleur said of Jones last month. “He’s definitely, I’ll throw it out there... he’s one of my favorites.” Jones, who turns 29 in December, played all 17 games last season. He approached a career-high with 272 touches and did set a personal best in Pro Football Focus rushing grade (91.0, 2nd-best among RBs). Current Draft Sharks projections have the Packers at a balanced 54% pass rate; 46% run rate. Jones checks in as a top-20 option on the RB rankings.
Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.football reports that Saints RB Alvin Kamara has agreed to plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge stemming from his 2022 Las Vegas incident. Underhill adds that "the felony charge is going away." That doesn't necessarily tell us what to expect in terms of league suspension. But the lightening of charges can't be bad news for Kamara's NFL penalty. And the plea deal should help speed up the league's decision. Kamara has been going in low-RB3 range of best ball drafts, which has made him a value -- albeit with the risk of uncertainty. We'll keep updating his projection in our rankings as more becomes clear.
NFL analyst Greg Cosell believes Giants QB Daniel Jones will improve in 2023. “He throws a good ball… He’s big, and he’s physical. I’m expecting him to take another step forward,” Cosell said on the Inside the Birds podcast. “I’ve heard really good things about how smart he is, how he works at it. You have to believe he’s going to take another step within the context of the [HC] Brian Daboll/[OC] Mike Kafka offense.” It’s a reminder that Jones, only 26, can reach higher ceiling. Led by TE Darren Waller, an improved set of weapons only adds to Jones’ 2023 fantasy value. You’ll find him among the top-15 of our QB rankings.
Saints insider Nick Underhill believes RB Kendre Miller will rush for over 500 yards in 2023. In the words of Underhill: “Even if Alvin [Kamara] doesn’t miss time…I think he’s going to force his way on the field…. I think he’s going to earn snaps.” Miller is coming off a meniscus injury, but RB coach Joel Thomas believes the 21-year-old will be a full participant come training camp. Saints rookies report to training camp in one week.
Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has already cracked the top 12 QBs in Underdog Fantasy ADP. Drafters are obviously chasing his rushing upside, and he'll need big ground production to deliver for fantasy. There have been seven rookie-QB seasons in NFL history that would have ranked among last year's top 12 QB scores. That group had a median of 34.0 rushing yards per game (578 yards over a 17-game season) and a median of 234.8 passing yards per game. All seven of those rookie QBs averaged at least 213.3 passing yards per game. That would obviously be an easier level for Richardson to reach right away. And he's capable of smashing that 34-yard rushing benchmark. Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all exceeded 50 rushing yards per game in 2022. Colts owner Jim Irsay recently reiterated that the team won't be scared to play Richardson early. The rookie doesn't sit as high in our 2023 fantasy football rankings as he does in Underdog ADP. But he certainly has the upside to deliver QB1-level production. Read more about his upside (and downside) in our Richardson profile.
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