Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 13

         

Welcome to Week 13’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 13 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 13!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Eagles at Ravens (51.0)
2. Rams at Saints (49.5)
3. Bears at Lions (48.0)
4. Chargers at Falcons (47.5)
5. Dolphins at Packers (47.0)
t-6. Steelers at Bengals (46.5)
t-6. Buccaneers at Panthers (46.5)

       

Lowest Game Totals

12. Colts at Patriots (42.5)
t-13. Raiders at Chiefs (42.0)
t-13. Browns at Broncos (42.0)
15. Seahawks at Jets (41.5)
16. Giants at Cowboys (38.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Lions (28.5)
2. Chiefs (27.5)
3. Ravens (27.0)
4. Buccaneers (26.5)
5. Rams (26.0)
6. Packers (25.5)
t-7. Commanders (25.25)
t-7. Bills (25.25)

     

Lowest Implied Points

t-27. Titans (19.25)
t-27. 49ers (19.25)
29. Bears (19.0)
30. Browns (18.0)
31. Giants (17.0)
32. Raiders (14.0)

 

Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected

Here's where every team stands in plays per game, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and Pass Rate Over Expected over the last five weeks:

         

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Chiefs (65.6)
2. Eagles (65.5)
3. Texans (65.3)
4. Lions (64.5)
5. Steelers (64.2)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Titans (60.2)
29. Giants (59.9)
30. Raiders (59.3)
31. Cardinals (58.8)
32. Jaguars (58.4)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

       

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

t-1. Giants at Cowboys (26.4 seconds)
t-1. Browns at Broncos (26.4 seconds)
t-3. Colts at Patriots (26.8 seconds)
t-3. Rams at Saints (26.8 seconds)
5. Steelers at Bengals (27.2 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

12. Raiders at Chiefs (28.2 seconds)
13. Chargers at Falcons (28.4 seconds)
14. Cardinals at Vikings (28.5 seconds)
15. 49ers at Bills (28.6 seconds)
16. Dolphins at Packers (29.9 seconds)

        

Weather Concerns

49ers at Bills

Orchard Park got hit with heavy snow on Saturday, but it's tapered off now. We could see some flurries during this game, but the snow shouldn't be significant. Temps will be in the upper 20s with winds around 10 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. This over/under has dropped from 47.0 to 44.5. The Bills are still implied for a healthy 25.25 points, but the 49ers are at 19.25. That's likely partly due to the weather but also partly due to QB Brock Purdy's shoulder injury. I'd at least try to avoid the kickers in this game.

    

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Ravens vs. Eagles (+61.1%)
2. Buccaneers at Panthers (+60.5%)
3. Chargers at Falcons (+50.5%)
4. Texans at Jaguars (+47.7%)
5. Packers vs. Dolphins (+45.8%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

28. Jaguars vs. Texans (-1.6%)
29. Panthers vs. Buccaneers (-5.2%)
30. Raiders at Chiefs (-6.6%)
31. Bears at Lions (-20.2%)
32. Browns at Broncos (-34.5%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. C.J. Stroud at Jaguars (+46%)
2. Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers (+28%)
3. Baker Mayfield at Panthers (+26%)
4. Russell Wilson at Bengals (+25%)
5. Tommy DeVito at Cowboys (+20%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Jared Goff vs. Bears (-20%)
29. Lamar Jackson vs. Eagles (-21%)
30. Jameis Winston at Broncos (-21%)
31. Jordan Love vs. Dolphins (-21%)
32. Joe Burrow vs. Steelers (-30%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Lions vs. Bears (+24.0%)
2. Buccaneers at Panthers (+11.4%)
3. Packers vs. Dolphins (+8.2%)
4. Ravens vs. Eagles (+3.3%)
5. Bills vs. 49ers (+2.2%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

28. Jaguars vs. Texans (-33.4%)
29. Patriots vs. Colts (-35.7%)
30. Cardinals at Vikings (-38.9%)
31. Browns at Broncos (-40.2%)
32. Raiders at Chiefs (-48.1%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Buccaneers at Panthers (+41%)
2. Texans at Jaguars (+27%)
3. 49ers at Bills (+23%)
4. Rams at Saints (+16%)
5. Cowboys vs. Giants (+16%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jaguars vs. Texans (-18%)
29. Ravens vs. Eagles (-19%)
30. Cardinals at Vikings (-24%)
31. Bears at Lions (-27%)
32. Raiders at Chiefs (-38%)

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Eagles at Ravens (+30%)
2. Texans at Jaguars (+26%)
3. Chargers at Falcons (+21%)
4. Cardinals at Vikings (+18%)
5. Steelers at Bengals (+15%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Lions vs. Bears (-15%)
29. Browns at Broncos (-15%)
30. Commanders vs. Titans (-16%)
31. Packers vs. Dolphins (-17%)
32. Bengals vs. Steelers (-18%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell vs. Jaguars CBs Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby

Rams WRs Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Demarcus Robinson vs. Saints CBs Alontae Taylor, Ugo Amadi, and Kool-Aid McKinstry

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, and Brandin Cooks vs. Giants CBs Andru Phillips, Deonte Banks, and Cordale Flott

Buccaneers WRs Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Sterling Shepard vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Dane Jackson

Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Josh Palmer vs. Falcons CBs Dee Alford, A.J. Terrell, and Clark Phillips

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

Titans WRs Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste and Mike Sainristil

Colts WRs Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, and Jonathan Jones

Chiefs WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy vs. Raiders CBs Decamerion Richardson and Jack Jones

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Steelers CBs Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Bears CB Kyler Gordon

49ers WRs Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall vs. Bills CBs Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson

Ravens WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Nazeeh Johnson

Browns WRs Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain and Ja'Quan McMillian

Packers WRs Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed vs. Dolphins CBs Jalen Ramsey, Storm Duck, and Kader Kohou

       

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Buccaneers at Panthers (+53%)
2. Patriots vs. Colts (+37%)
3. Chiefs vs. Raiders (+30%)
4. Dolphins at Packers (+30%)
5. Texans at Jaguars (+30%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Falcons vs. Chargers (-22%)
29. Seahawks at Jets (-22%)
30. Ravens vs. Eagles (-34%)
31. Bears at Lions (-37%)
32. Cowboys vs. Giants (-37%)

     

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Broncos vs. Browns (+99%)
2. Chiefs vs. Raiders (+86%)
3. Cowboys vs. Giants (+71%)
4. Colts at Patriots (+63%)
5. Commanders vs. Titans (+61%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Titans at Commanders (-37%)
29. Dolphins at Packers (-39%)
30. Bears at Lions (-53%)
31. 49ers at Bills (-54%)
32. Eagles at Ravens (-80%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Spencer Shrader/Matthew Wright vs. Raiders (+41%)
2. Brandon McManus vs. Dolphins (+40%)
3. Cameron Dicker at Falcons (+34%)
4. Chase McLaughlin at Panthers (+31%)
5. Jake Elliott at Ravens (+20%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Nick Folk at Commanders (-21%)
29. Justin Tucker vs. Eagles (-23%)
30. Evan McPherson vs. Steelers (-28%)
31. Younghoe Koo vs. Chargers (-33%)
32. Chad Ryland at Vikings (-37%)