Welcome to Week 13’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 13 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 13!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Chiefs at Cowboys (53.5)
2. Bengals at Ravens (52.5)
3. Packers at Lions (48.5)
4. Giants at Patriots (46.5)
5. Bills at Steelers (45.5)
6. Rams at Panthers (45.0)

Lowest Game Totals

t-11. Jaguars at Titans (42.0)
t-11. Saints at Dolphins (42.0)
13. Vikings at Seahawks (41.5)
14. Raiders at Chargers (40.5)
15. Falcons at Jets (38.5)
16. 49ers at Browns (35.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Ravens (30.0)
2. Chiefs (28.5)
3. Rams (27.75)
4. Patriots (27.0)
5. Seahawks (26.5)

Fewest Projected Points

28. Jets (17.75)
29. Panthers (17.25)
30. Raiders (15.25)
t-31. Browns (15.0)
t-31. Vikings (15.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Chiefs (64.3)
2. Bills (64.2)
3. Chargers (63.6)
4. Jaguars (63.5)
5. Cardinals (63.4)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Commanders (59.5)
29. Dolphins (59.0)
30. Steelers (58.7)
31. Raiders (58.2)
32. Vikings (57.8)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Chiefs at Cowboys (25.7 seconds)
2. Packers at Lions (26.6 seconds)
3. Bengals at Ravens (27.4 seconds)
4. Bears at Eagles (27.8 seconds)
5. Falcons at Jets (28.0 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

12. Giants at Patriots (29.1 seconds)
13. Saints at Dolphins (29.2 seconds)
14. 49ers at Browns (29.4 seconds)
t-15. Cardinals at Buccaneers (30.0 seconds)
t-15. Jaguars at Titans (30.0 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Bears at Eagles

Winds forecasted at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. That's enough to impact deep passes and kicks. We're not adjusting any projections, but you could use the weather as a tiebreaker against guys from this game.

49ers at Browns

The worst weather game of the week. Sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. The total in this game has dropped from 42.5 to 35.5. Expect a run-heavy game plan from both sides. RBs Christian McCaffrey and Quinshon Judkins can stay in fantasy lineups. TE George Kittle is the only comfortable play from either passing game. Avoid the kickers.

Falcons at Jets

This game figures to get wet, with the forecast calling for a 70% chance of rain. Winds are coming in at just 10 mph, though. We're not adjusting projections for this game, but hopefully you're not relying too heavily on either passing attack. Expect plenty of running on both sides.

Bills at Steelers

15 mph sustained winds with gusts around 30 mph. The over/under here has dropped just one point, from 46.5 to 45.5. We're not adjusting projections, but you can use weather as a tiebreaker against guys in this game.

Broncos at Commanders

Similar forecast to Pittsburgh: 10-15 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. That could impact deeper passes and kicks, but we're not altering projections.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Seahawks vs. Vikings (+66.0%)
2. Ravens vs. Bengals (+63.5%)
3. Chiefs at Cowboys (+63.3%)
4. Rams at Panthers (+61.0%)
5. Eagles vs. Bears (+48.7%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Jets vs. Falcons (-13.4%)
29. Browns vs. 49ers (-22.8%)
30. Vikings at Seahawks (-23.4%)
31. Raiders at Chargers (-24.4%)
32. Panthers vs. Rams (-28.3%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Geno Smith at Chargers (-18.6%)
29. Jared Goff vs. Packers (-21.9%)
30. Brock Purdy at Browns (-22.3%)
31. Daniel Jones vs. Texans (-29.6%)
32. Marcus Mariota vs. Broncos (29.7%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Bills at Steelers (+9.2%)
2. Steelers vs. Bills (+9.1%)
3. Ravens vs. Bengals (+8.2%)
4. Chiefs at Cowboys (+5.8%)
5. Rams at Panthers (+2.4%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Commanders vs. Broncos (-28.5%)
29. 49ers at Browns (-34.3%)
30. Cardinals at Buccaeers (-36.6%)
31. Titans vs. Jaguars (-38.7%)
32. Saints at Dolphins (-40.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. 49ers at Browns (-18.9%)
29. Cowboys vs. Chiefs (-19.0%)
30. Packers at Lions (-21.3%)
31. Giants at Patriots (-25.3%)
32. Panthers vs. Rams (-28.8%)

Wide Receiver

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Tre Tucker at Chargers (-14.8%)
29. Rams at Panthers (-16.0%)
30. Seahawks vs. Vikings (-17.9%)
31. Colts vs. Texans (-22.2%)
32. Commanders vs. Broncos (-23.0%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Seahawks WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed vs. Vikings CBs Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and Josh Metellus

Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland, Trikweze Bridges, and Reddy Steward

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Alontae Taylor

Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Dolphins CBs Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jack Jones, and JuJu Brents

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Steelers CB Brandin Echols

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones, and Noah Igbinoghene

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Packers CB Javon Bullard

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins vs. Colts CBs Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Rams CBs Cobie Durant and Emanuel Forbes

Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Bears WRs Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and Luther Burden vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Tight End

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Chargers vs. Raiders (-26.4%)
29. Raiders at Chargers (-26.7%)
30. Jets vs. Falcons (-33.6%)
31. Bears at Eagles (-40.7%)
32. Steelers vs. Bills (-54.4%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. 49ers at Browns (+106.5%)
2. Chargers vs. Browns (+71.0%)
3. Seahawks vs. Vikings (+70.4%)
4. Buccaneers vs. Cardinals (+64.7%)
5. Dolphins vs. Saints (+63.5%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Lions vs. Packers (-39.7%)
29. Chiefs at Cowboys (-44.9%)
30. Packers at Lions (-53.8%)
31. Panthers vs. Rams (-62.1%)
32. Texans at Colts (-63.3%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Zane Gonzalez at Jets (+43.2%)
2. Chase McLaughlin vs. Cardinals (+22.5%)
3. Cairo Santos at Eagles (+20.8%)
4. Harrison Butker at Cowboys (+20.4%)
5. Wil Lutz at Commanders (+16.6%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Ka'imi Fairbairn at Colts (-14.6%)
29. Andre Szmyt vs. 49ers (-20.7%)
30. Will Reichard at Seahawks (-31.8%)
31. Joey Slye vs. Jaguars (-36.6%)
32. Michael Badgley vs. Texans (-43.1%)