Week 4 Matchups That Matter: Elite RBs in Smash Spots

Welcome to Week 4’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

With three week’s worth of 2026 data, we’re starting to get a good idea of what all of these offenses and defenses will look like this season. 

And this week is the debut of our adjusted fantasy points allowed, which shows the percentage by which each defense has boosted or reduced fantasy production to each position. It's a much better metric than raw fantasy points allowed because it takes into account strength of opponent for every defense.

As always, check the Week 4 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 4!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Jaguars at Bengals (51.5)
2. Lions at Panthers (51.0)
3. Patriots at Bills (48.5)
t-4. Cowboys at Texans (48.0)
t-4. Broncos at 49ers (48.0)
t-6. Colts vs. Commanders (47.5)
t-6. Chiefs at Raiders (47.5)
t-6. Falcons at Saints (47.5)

Lowest Game Totals

12. Jets at Bears (43.0)
13. Chargers at Seahawks (42.5)
14. Packers at Buccaneers (39.5)
t-15. Steelers at Browns (38.5)
t-15. Dolphins at Vikings (38.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. Bills (27.5)
t-2. Ravens (27.25)
t-2. Lions (27.25)
4. Bengals (27.0)
5. Chiefs (26.0)
6. Colts (25.5)
7. 49ers (25.25)

Lowest Projected Points

27. Jets (19.5)
t-28. Browns (18.0)
t-28. Buccaneers (18.0)
30. Chargers (17.75)
31. Titans (16.25)
32. Dolphins (14.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Saints (64.0)
2. Lions (63.9)
3. Bears (63.6)
4. Chiefs (63.4)
5. Bengals (63.1)
6. Texans (63.0)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Chargers (60.3)
29. Browns (59.8)
30. Buccaneers (59.4)
31. Titans (59.0)
32. Dolphins (58.3)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Lions at Panthers (27.1 seconds)
2. Cowboys at Texans (27.2 seconds)
3. Packers at Buccaneers (27.9 seconds)
4. Falcons at Saints (28.6 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

12. Broncos at 49ers (30.7 seconds)
13. Jets at Bears (31.0 seconds)
14. Cardinals at Giants (31.2 seconds)
15. Dolphins at Vikings (31.4 seconds)
16. Jaguars at Bengals (32.2 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 3 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Week 4 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. their opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Daniel Jones vs. Commanders (+73.3%)
2. Jalon Daniels vs. Packers (+69.4%)
3. C.J. Stroud vs. Cowboys (+61.6%)
4. Trevor Lawrence at Bengals (+52.5%)
5. Bryce Young vs. Lions (+45.1%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

28. Sam Darnold vs. Chargers (-25.1%)
29. Malik Willis at Vikings (-32.9%)
30. Josh Allen vs. Patriots (-35.7%)
31. Kirk Cousins vs. Chiefs (-36.4%)
32. Lamar Jackson vs. Titans (-40.9%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 3 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Week 4 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. their opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Buccaneers vs. Packers (+52.8%)
2. Vikings vs. Dolphins (+31.3%)
3. Lions at Panthers (+30.8%)
4. Bears vs. Jets (+29.3%)
5. Ravens vs. Titans (+28.8%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

28. Giants vs. Cardinals (-27.0%)
29. Saints vs. Falcons (-31.1%)
30. Colts at Commanders (-35.4%)
31. Dolphins at Vikings (-41.6%)
32. Cowboys at Texans (-50.3%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Buccaneers vs. Packers (+66.8%)
2. Patriots at Bills (+48.0%)
3. Bengals vs. Jaguars (+45.6%)
4. Cowboys at Texans (+37.4%)
5. Eagles vs. Rams (+28.2%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

28. 49ers vs. Broncos (-25.1%)
29. Chargers at Seahawks (-27.4%)
30. Vikings vs. Dolphins (-31.0%)
31. Bears vs. Jets (-32.8%)
32. Chiefs at Raiders (-33.7%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Chargers CBs Cam Hart and Rodney Shelley

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Panthers CBs Will Lee and Akayleb Evans

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Dolphins CBs Julius Brents, Jason Marshall, and Chris Johnson

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Shavon Revel

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Bears CBs Malik Muhammad, Jaylon Johnson, and Cam Lewis

Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Buccaneers CBs Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Keionte Scott

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Ennis Rakestraw, and Roger McCreary

Colts WRs Josh Downs and Keenan Allen vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Rasul Douglas, and Amik Robertson

Cardinals WRs Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Giants CBs Colton Hood and Greg Newsome

Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse, and Javon Bullard

Commanders WR Stefon Diggs vs. Colts CB Justin Walley

Browns WR K.C. Concepcion vs. Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen, and Cooper DeJean

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Bills WR D.J. Moore vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis

Jaguars WRs Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Bengals CBs D.J. Turner, Daxton Hill, and Jalen Davis

Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nehemiah Pritchett

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Raiders CB Taron Johnson

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best TE Matchups

1. Colts vs. Commanders (+193.8%)
2. Texans vs. Cowboys (+129.8%)
3. Panthers vs. Lions (+98.6%)
4. Chiefs at Raiders (+76.3%)
5. Lions at Panthers (+71.5%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

28. Jets at Bears (-47.6%)
29. Bengals vs. Jaguars (-49.0%)
30. Bills vs. Patriots (-55.6%)
31. Eagles vs. Rams (-57.8%)
32. Ravens vs. Titans (-60.7%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Saints vs. Falcons (+265.2%)
2. Cardinals at Giants (+200.0%)
3. Ravens vs. Titans (+166.8%)
4. Packers at Buccaneers (+90.7%)
5. Eagleas vs. Rams (67.8%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

28. Giants vs. Cardinals (-59.2%)
29. Panthers vs. Lions (-63.6%)
30. Bengals vs. Jaguars (-75.0%)
31. Texans vs. Cowboys (-82.9%)
32. Broncos at 49ers (-126.6%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best K Matchups

1. Tyler Loop vs. Titans (+150.1%)
2. Trey Smack at Buccaneers (+88.0%)
3. Andres Borregales at Bills (+79.4%)
4. Spencer Shrader at Commanders (+66.7%)
5. Chris Boswell at Browns (+50.0%)

5 Worst K Matchups

28. Tyler Bass vs. Patriots (-35.8%)
29. Harrison Butker at Raiders (-41.5%)
30. Jason Sanders at Bears (-43.3%)
31. Ryan Fitzgerald vs. Lions (-43.4%)
32. Chad Ryland at Giants (-73.6%)