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Week 4 Matchups That Matter: Smash Spots For Rookie RBs

Welcome to Week 4’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

With three week’s worth of 2024 data, we’re starting to get a good idea of what all of these offenses and defenses will look like this season. 

And this week is the debut of our adjusted fantasy points allowed, which shows the percentage by which each defense has boosted or reduced fantasy production to each position. It's a much better metric than raw fantasy points allowed because it takes into account strength of opponent for every defense.

As always, you should check the Week 4 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 4!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Colts at Rams (49.5)
t-2. Ravens at Chiefs (48.5)
t-2. Saints at Bills (48.5)
4. Bears at Raiders (47.5)
t-5. Packers at Cowboys (46.5)
t-5. Jaguars at 49ers (46.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-11. Seahawks at Cardinals (43.5)
t-11. Commanders at Falcons (43.5)
t-11. Chargers at Giants (43.5)
14. Panthers at Patriots (43.0)
15. Vikings at Steelers (41)
16. Titans at Texans (39.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Bills (31.5)
2. Lions (27.25)
t-3. Rams (26.5)
t-3. Packers (26.5)
5. Broncos (26.0)
6. Ravens (25.5)

Fewest Projected Points

27. Panthers (18.75)
t-28. Giants (18.5)
t-28. Bengals (18.5)
30. Browns (17.25)
31. Saints (17.0)
32. Titans (16.25)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Bills (64.5)
2. Lions (63.6)
3. Commanders (63.5)
4. Saints (63.4)
5. Colts (63.3)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Dolphins (61.5)
29. Vikings (61.2)
30. Bengals (61.1)
31. Steelers (60.7)
32. Titans (60.6)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Saints at Bills (24.9 seconds)
2. Bengals at Broncos (26.2 seconds)
3. Jaguars at 49ers (26.7 seconds)
4. Browns at Lions (27.2 seconds)
5. Bears at Raiders (27.5 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

12. Jets at Dolphins (28.6 seconds)
13. Seahawks at Cardinals (28.9 seconds)
14. Vikings at Steelers (29.1 seconds)
15. Commanders at Falcons (29.3 seconds)
16. Panthers at Patriots (29.5 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Jets at Dolphins

The forecast for this Monday nighter calls for sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts around 20. That could impact deep passes and longer FGs, but it's not quite enough for us to adjust projections.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Packers at Cowboys (+105.8)
2. Bills vs. Saints (+93.4)
3. Ravens at Chiefs (+68.4)
4. Bears at Raiders (+64.7)
5. Chargers at Giants (+63.3)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Bengals at Broncos (-14.3)
29. Giants vs. Chargers (-16.1)
30. Steelers vs. Vikings (-16.2)
31. Cowboys vs. Packers (-21.8)
32. Titans at Texans (-34.0)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Geno Smith vs. Bears (+229.7%)
2. Bryce Young at Patriots (+216.9%)
3. Jalen Hurts at Buccaneers (+164.8%)
4. Jordan Love at Cowboys (+145.4%)
5. Carson Wentz at Steelers (+141.4%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Jared Goff vs. Browns (-43.6%)
29. Kyler Murray vs. Seahawks (-44.6)
30. Aaron Rodgers vs. Vikings (-44.8%)
31. Drake Maye vs. Panthers (-47.7%)
32. Dak Prescott vs. Packers (-57.7%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Rams vs. Colts (+17.0)
2. Texans vs. Titans (+10.9)
3. Chargers at Giants (+10.6)
4. Vikings at Steelers (+8.3)
5. Chiefs vs. Ravens (+7.4)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Eagles at Buccaneers (-39.4)
29. Panthers at Patriots (-40.1)
30. Browns at Lions (-43.5)
31. Cardinals vs. Seahawks (-58.2)
32. Bengals at Broncos (-58.6)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers at Giants (+72.3%)
2. Bengals at Broncos (+66.8%)
3. Raiders vs. Bears (+64.8%)
4. Vikings at Steelers (+57.5%)
5. Packers at Cowboys (+39.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed

28. Falcons vs. Commanders (-34.2%)
29. Rams vs. Colts (34.5%)
30. Colts vs. Rams (-36.3%)
31. Cowboys vs. Packers (-41.6%)
32. Commanders at Falcons (-48.7%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Packers at Cowboys (+122.8%)
2. Bills vs. Saints (+106.6%)
3. Vikings at Steelers (+96.2%)
4. Eagles at Buccaneers (+91.2%)
5. Colts at Rams (+84.3%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Saints at Bills (-33.3%)
29. Cardinals vs. Seahawks (-42.6%)
30. Lions vs. Browns (-42.8%)
31. Cowboys vs. Packers (-50.6%)
32. Steelers vs. Vikings (-51.5%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Seahawks WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp vs. Cardinals CBs Max Melton, Kei'Trel Clark, and Garrett Williams

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Browns CBs Cameron Mitchell, Greg Newsome, and Denzel Ward

Bears WRs Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore vs. Raiders CBs Eric Stokes, Kyu Kelly, and Darnay Holmes

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Dolphins CBs Rasul Douglas and Jack Jones

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel vs. Falcons CB Billy Bowman

Raiders WRs Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers vs. Bears CBs Nahshon Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and Nick McCloud

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Cowboys WR George Pickens vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Titans WRs Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Vikings at Steelers (+215.5%)
2. Packers at Cowboys (+204.9%)
3. Rams vs. Colts (+188.5%)
4. Raiders vs. Bears (+90.9%)
5. Colts at Rams (+62.7%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Giants vs. Chargers (-46.4%)
29. Dolphins vs. Jets (-46.5%)
30. 49ers vs. Jaguars (-47.4%)
31. Browns at Lions (-52.9%)
32. Buccaneers vs. Eagles (58.9%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Lions vs. Browns (-833.0%)
2. Panthers at Patriots (+353.2%)
3. Chargers at Giants (+344.7%)
4. Dolphins vs. Jets (+246.8%)
5. Broncos vs. Bengals (+180.0%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Eagles at Buccaneers (-67.9%)
29. Chiefs vs. Ravens (-107.1%)
30. Saints at Bills (-108.4%)
31. Rams vs. Colts (-112.1%)
32. Steelers vs. Vikings (-788.7%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Titans (+211.0%)
2. Jason Myers at Cardinals (+119.1%)
3. Chris Boswell vs. Vikings (+69.6%)
4. Matt Gay at Falcons (+63.6%)
5. Riley Patterson vs. Jets (+63.3%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Blake Grupe at Bills (-33.3%)
29. Chad Ryland vs. Seahawks (-36.4%)
30. Jake Elliott at Buccaneers (-44.1%)
31. Joshua Karty vs. Colts (-45.1%)
32. Joey Slye at Texans (-57.1%)

Next Up

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 3 Usage

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.