Patriots WR JuJu Smith-Schuster missed all of spring practices because of the knee injury he suffered in last year's AFC Championship Game, according to The Athletic's Chad Graff. Smith-Schuster was able to play in the Super Bowl, so it's surprising that this is still an issue four months later. The missed reps aren't ideal as JuJu works to settle into a new offense. We'll see if he's ready to go for the start of training camp next month.
The first half of Chargers WR Keenan Allen's 2022 season was wrecked by a hamstring injury. But he was a fantasy football stud over the second half. Allen led all WRs with 60 catches over his final eight games and ranked second to only Justin Jefferson with 83 targets. Allen scored the third most PPR points at his position over those eight contests. He's now finished as a top-13 WR in PPR points per game in six straight seasons and has shown no signs of decline, ranking 12th among 80 qualifying WRs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route run last year. Even with the addition of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston, Allen looks like a rock-solid WR2 pick in fantasy football drafts. See exactly where he lands in our WR Rankings.
Texans RB Dameon Pierce became a workhorse as a 2022 rookie, taking 74.3% of the team's rushing attempts over his 13 games. For the year, he ranked 10th among all RBs in opportunity share (carries plus targets). Pierce's rushing-efficiency stats provided mixed messages. He tied for 12th in yards after contact per attempt and ranked second in elusive rating, according to Pro Football Focus. But Pierce finished just 37th in Football Outsiders' rushing DYAR and DVOA, among 42 qualifying RBs. He also sat 19th or lower in points per game across fantasy formats. A weak O-line and poor passing offense certainly didn't help. We're betting on more efficiency from Pierce in Year 2. But you should also expect the team to lighten his workload after importing RB Devin Singletary. See where both players sit in our 2023 RB rankings.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton ranked just 40th among WRs in PPR points per game and 41st in half-PPR last year. HC Nathaniel Hackett and QB Russell Wilson were problems. But Sutton finished well behind teammate Jerry Jeudy in fantasy points per game, as well as yards per target (9.7 to 7.6), yards per route run (2.18 to 1.55), and Pro Football Focus receiving grade (77.9 to 69.7). HC Sean Payton should be a significant upgrade for Denver's offense in 2023. But Wilson remains a question mark. And Sutton faces additional target competition with the addition of rookie WR Marvin Mims and the return of WR Tim Patrick (ACL). It all makes Sutton a fairly uninspiring fantasy pick, even at his WR39 ADP. He sits considerably lower than that in our updated WR rankings.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert enters year six looking to play a full season for the first time since 2018. Goedert missed five games with a small fracture in his shoulder last year. Still, he remained a big part of Philly’s passing game. Including the playoffs, he posted a 19.9% target share that only five TEs beat. He finished TE5 in fantasy points per game. While he remains the No. 3 target in a low-volume pass offense, Goedert’s proven highly efficient throughout his career. In fact, he paces all pass catchers in yards per target (10.6) over the past two seasons. The Eagles lost OC Shane Steichen to the Colts, but this unit shouldn’t change much following the promotion of QB coach Brian Johnson. Goedert, 28, profiles as a mid-level fantasy starter in our TE rankings.
Browns RB Nick Chubb posted a career year in 2022, finishing as the RB7 in PPR points per game (16.6). Even better, the lowest weekly fantasy finish Chubb recorded in 2022 was RB37, meaning he was at least a flex-worthy player in every game he played. He finished the season third in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, rushing yards (1,525), and yards after contact (1,050), in addition to tying for fourth in rushing TDs (12). But if you zoom in a bit, Chubb did take a step backward in a couple of areas. He logged a career-low 3.48 yards after contact per attempt, down from 4.24 and 4.00 the previous two years, and his 97.2 PFF Elusive Rating marked much lower than his 2021 (107.7) and 2020 (126.6) numbers. We still have a lot of faith in Chubb in 2023 despite the red flags. Only 2021 fifth-round pick Jerome Ford, a player who logged 8 total touches last season, stands as competition for touches, and the Browns’ offensive line that ranked eighth in PFF team run-blocking grade is still strong. See where Chubb lands in our current RB rankings.
Saints QB Derek Carr obviously endured a rough final season with the Raiders. He got benched for the final two games and then released after the season. Before that, though, the veteran's performance declined significantly in multiple non-obvious categories. His 60.8% completion rate was his lowest since his rookie year (2014). Carr's 7.0 yards per pass attempt was his lowest mark since 2017, despite a career high in average depth of target. He posted his worst passer rating, Pro Football Focus passing grade and adjusted completion rate since 2014. And Carr's 2.8% INT rate was the worst of his career. The Saints obviously believe he can rebound, and Carr still finished 16th among QBs in total fantasy points; 20th in points per game. He's at least probably not a downgrade for New Orleans, but Carr sits just 26th in our QB rankings and isn't boosting the fantasy outlook for Chris Olave or any other Saints receiver.
Per a report from Fox Sports, Packers WR Romeo Doubs recently spoke glowingly about his new QB, Jordan Love. "When you go from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan, Aaron was a really great quarterback, but I believe Jordan can do the same exact thing," said Doubs, adding that he doesn't see "the big difference" between the two. That's certainly high praise to cast upon Love, especially when comparing him to a former MVP in now-Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. He'll have big shoes to fill in Green Bay. The question is, can he be a significant contributor in 2023? It's tough to say as of now. He's only appeared in parts of 10 games with one career start in Week 9 of 2021 when Love went 19 of 34 passing (55.8%) for 190 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a loss to Kansas City. But we know that the Packers' front office greatly believes in him. The team signed Love to a one-year/$13.5 million extension (worth up to $22.5 million) instead of picking up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Check out our QB rankings to see if we're as keen on Love as his teammate is.
Chad Graff of The Athletic writes that it was a “rough spring” for the Patriots’ O-line. Graff points out struggles at OT while noting that key RG Mike Onwenu missed spring practices (ankle surgery). We're not altering projections for Mac Jones or Rhamondre Stevenson. But we’ll keep a close eye on this unit as the pads come on at training camp.
Zac Jackson of The Athletic believes Browns QB Deshaun Watson will be “much better” in 2023. We’re in strong agreement there. Watson struggled across six late-season games last year, tallying 6.5 yards per attempt and a 58.2% completion rate. But let’s recognize that he played his first regular season games since the 2020 season. And we’re ultimately talking about a small sample of 170 attempts. Cleveland added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman to a receiving corps already featuring Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku. Watson sits inside the top 10 of our QB rankings.
ESPN's Adam Schefter believes Sam Darnold will head to training camp as the favorite for the 49ers' No. 2 QB job. With a healthy QB Brock Purdy the favorite to start, that'd leave QB Trey Lance third on the depth chart. Schefter adds that he doesn't expect Lance to be traded because "there was never a lot of interest." The massive fall continues for Lance, who was the third overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. He's certainly worth keeping stashed on dynasty rosters, but it's getting tougher to spend a pick on Lance at any point of best-ball drafts.
Christian McCaffrey led RBs in PPR points per game and ranked third in non-PPR across his nine full regular-season games with the 49ers last season. But his usage and production declined when RB Elijah Mitchell was healthy. In seven games without Mitchell (including playoffs), McCaffrey averaged 24.1 opportunities (carries + targets), 135 total yards, and 1.3 TDs. He sunk to 17.2 opportunities, 85 total yards, and 0.6 TDs in five games with Mitchell. McCaffrey’s scoring averages in those five games would have ranked seventh among RBs in PPR points per game for the season and 12th in non-PPR. It's certainly possible that McCaffrey's usage alongside Mitchell grows in 2023 after a full offseason in the offense. But the Mitchell splits are certainly worth considering as you decide whether to spend a top-5 pick on McCaffrey in fantasy drafts this summer. See our baseline, ceiling, and floor projections for McCaffrey.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon regressed in many statistical categories in 2022. He recorded 270 touches, 1,255 total yards, and 9 total TDs with 17.1 PPR points per game, all down from the 334-1,519-16 line he posted the season prior. There are definitely reasons to be nervous about a 27-year-old RB coming off a down year, but don't forget about how effective he was as a receiver last year. He saw a career-high in targets (75), receptions (60), and receiving yards (441) in 2022, ranking within the top-6 at the position in each category. Moreover, Mixon ranked seventh in PFF receiving grade among RBs who received at least 40 targets last year. He finished 18th in this same measure in 2021. We anticipate he'll be a valuable piece of the Bengals' passing game again in 2023. Mixon is a sneaky good value this year in PPR drafts. See how many catches we have him projected for in our current RB rankings.
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard is expected to be ready for training camp, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Pollard's 2022 season ended with a fractured left fibula on January 22, but his recovery has gone smoothly based on reports throughout the offseason. That leg injury shouldn't be a factor by the time this coming season kicks off. Pollard sits inside the top 10 RBs in our 2023 PPR Rankings.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett finished 16th among WRs in PPR points per game last season -- his fifth straight top-25 finish. Lockett will turn 31 in September but has shown no signs of decline. He ranked 20th among 80 qualifying WRs in yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year. And he beat 25-year-old teammate D.K. Metcalf in all three metrics. Even with the arrival of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we're not betting against another top-25 season from Lockett. See exactly where he sits in the 2023 WR Rankings.
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith spent part of the winter rehabbing a toe injury from Super Bowl 57. He’s back to 100% and looking to appear in all 17 games for the third straight season. (So much for those concerns about his slim frame.) In 2022, Smith nearly matched A.J. Brown in target share (27% vs. 28.6%). The ‘Bama product finished as the PPR WR9, up from a WR29 finish as a rookie. Top-12 fantasy upside remains in a condensed Eagles passing game. Smith turns just 25 in November.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is being investigated on assault and battery allegations for an incident at a Miami Beach marina over the weekend. According to insider Andy Slater, Hill allegedly slapped an employee of the marina on the back of the head during an argument. That employee has declined to press charges at this time. We'll keep you updated on the situation. For now, we're not moving Hill in the 2023 WR Rankings -- but it's not crazy to pass on him in the first five or six picks of fantasy drafts if you want to avoid any suspension risk.
UPDATE: The employee has decided to press charges. We'll continue to monitor this story for developments.
You probably already know that Buccaneers WR Mike Evans got a large fantasy boost from his monster Week 17 outing last year: 10 catches, 207 yards, 3 TDs. That game accounted for 21.6% of his PPR scoring for the season. And his 8-103-2 line in Week 4 against the Chiefs accounted for another 13.4%. Evans' downfield nature has always made him a volatile weekly scorer, but last year delivered fewer of the high-end fantasy lines. Evans posted four top-12 weeks in 2020, five in 2021, and then just three last year. He followed eight top-24 weeks in 2020 with 10 in 2021 but only five last season. And now comes a QB downgrade from Tom Brady to whomever wins the Baker Mayfield-Kyle Trask showdown. Even at Evans' depressed ADP, it has been tough to like him in drafts. See where he sits in our 2023 fantasy football rankings, and read more about why you should be wary.
Per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has expressed his desire this offseason to be utilized more as a deep threat in the passing game in 2023. Lions WR coach Antwaan Randle El shared that he "has seen subtle growth" from St. Brown in OTAs and minicamps that can help him achieve that goal. The former fourth-round pick finished 2022 as the WR7 overall with 16.8 PPR points per game last season, leading the Lions in targets (145), target share (27.8%), and Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.57) while finishing 2nd on the team in air yards share (25.8%). The tricky part is we haven't seen St. Brown used much as a deep threat in his career so far. According to PFF, only 9 of his targets last year were measured at 20+ yards downfield, and St. Brown's career average depth of target (aDOT) is 6.8. Such a shift in usage would be a big change, though St. Brown did register a 10.6 career aDOT across three seasons in college at USC. Whether he becomes a deep shot receiver or not, we're bullish about St. Brown entering the 2023 season. Check out where he sits in our current WR rankings.
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes the Chargers’ O-line is in "outstanding shape” entering training camp. “The starting five has a chance to be special, especially with [Zion] Johnson moving to his more natural position at left guard next to an All-Pro in [Rashawn] Slater," Popper adds. Call it a bonus for QB Justin Herbert, who should already benefit from the addition of Round 1 WR Quentin Johnston. Without question, Herbert is one of the top fantasy QBs for 2023.
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