Week 3 Matchups That Matter: Are These Defenses ACTUALLY Good?

Welcome to Week 3’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

We now have two week’s worth of 2026 data, which is good but still not great. 

We’re just starting to get an idea of what all these offenses and defenses will look like this season. But a lot of the numbers can still be misleading. So be careful not to weigh matchups too heavily.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 3 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 3!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Ravens vs. Cowboys (53.5)
2. Chargers at Bills (50.5)
t-3. Cardinals at 49ers (48.5)
t-3. Jets at Lions (48.5)
5. Patriots at Jaguars (46.0)
6. Chiefs at Dolphins (45.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-10. Vikings at Buccaneers (42.5)
t-10. Texans at Colts (42.5)
t-10. Bengals at Steelers (42.5)
t-10. Eagles at Bears (42.5)
14. Panthers at Browns (42.0)
15. Seahawks at Commanders (40.5)
16. Giants at Titans (37.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. Bills (29.0)
2. Ravens (28.25)
3. 49ers (28.0)
4. Chiefs (27.75)
5. Lions (27.5)

Lowest Projected Points

t-27. Steelers (19.5)
t-27. Bears (19.5)
29. Falcons (19.25)
30. Dolphins (18.25)
31. Titans (17.5)
32. Commanders (16.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Saints (63.6)
2. Lions (63.5)
3. Chiefs (63.4)
4. Cowboys (63.3)
5. Ravens (63.1)
6. Bills (63.0)

Fewest Projected Plays

26. Colts (60.9)
t-27. Cardinals (60.8)
t-27. Falcons (60.8)
29. Commanders (60.2)
30. Browns (59.9)
31. Titans (59.6)
32. Dolphins (58.8)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Raiders at Saints (26.7 seconds)
2. Falcons at Packers (27.2 seconds)
3. Texans at Colts (27.2 seconds)
4. Chargers at Bills (27.7 seconds)
5. Panthers at Browns (27.9 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

12. Seahawks at Commanders (29.5 seconds)
13. Jets at Lions (30.0 seconds)
14. Vikings at Buccaneers (30.3 seconds)
15. Patriots at Jaguars (30.5 seconds)
16. Cardinals at 49ers (30.9 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Titans at Giants

We'll likely see some rain in this game, although it's not expected to be heavy. Winds are the bigger issue: 15 mph sustained with gusts up over 30. We've docked both teams' pass rates and expect run-leaning attacks on both sides. Avoid the kickers from this game. The over/under has notably dropped from 39.5 to 37.5.

Seahawks at Commanders

Similar weather to the Giants game. A chance for rain with winds around 15 mph and gusts of 30+. It's worth noting that this over/under (40.5) hasn't moved in the last couple of days, but we're still expecting at least a little shift toward the run from both teams.

Bengals at Steelers

15 mph winds with gusts up near 25 mph. We could see that impact deep passes and/or FGs, but we're not adjusting projections and wouldn't alter your plans for any players in this game.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA per pass allowed through 2 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Note that this is still just a two-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.

Week 3 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. this week's opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 3 matchups according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. (Note that we're using 2025 data until Week 4.)

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Lamar Jackson vs. Cowboys (+46.0%)
2. Kyler Murray at Buccaneers (+22.7%)
3. Jared Goff vs. Jets (+21.1%)
4. Joe Burrow at Steelers (+20.1%)
5. Sam Darnold at Commanders (+19.1%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

28. Tyson Bagent (?) vs. Eagles (-18.0%)
29. Deshaun Watson vs. Panthers (-18.4%)
30. Josh Allen vs. Chargers (-22.0%)
31. Daniel Jones vs. Texans (-25.8%)
32. Baker Mayfield vs. Vikings (-36.2%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 2 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Note that this is still just a two-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.

Week 3 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. this week's opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 3 matchups according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. (Note that we're using 2025 data until Week 4.)

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Ravens vs. Cowboys (+26.7%)
2. Titans at Giants (+24.6%)
3. Steelers vs. Bengals (+23.4%)
4. 49ers vs Cardinals (+21.5%)
5. Lions vs. Jets (+19.2%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

28. Rams at Broncos (-13.6%)
29. Commanders vs. Seahawks (-16.6%)
30. Jaguars vs. Patriots (-16.9%)
31. Buccaneers vs. Vikings (-17.7%)
32. Bengals at Steelers (-17.9%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 3 matchups according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. (Note that we're using 2025 data until Week 4.)

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Ravens vs. Cowboys (+33.4%)
2. Eagles at Bears (+21.9%)
3. Cowboys vs. Ravens (+19.9%)
4. Texans at Colts (+19.3%)
5. Bengals at Steelers (+17.9%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

28. Browns vs. Panthers (-15.4%)
29. Rams at Broncos (-15.5%)
30. Colts vs. Texans (-18.8%)
31. Bears vs. Eagles (-20.9%)
32. Buccaneers vs. Vikings (-27.8%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Seahawks WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, and Cooper Kupp vs. Commanders CBs Rasul Douglas, Amik Robertson, and Mike Sainristil

Lions CBs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Jets CBs Jarvis Brownlee, Azareye'h Thomas, and Brandon Stephens

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Keionte Scott

Eagles WRs DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, and Makai Lemon vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Malik Muhammad

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Packers CBs Brandon Cisse and Keisean Nixon

Ravens WR Rashod Bateman vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland, Cobie Durant, and Caleb Downs

Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Falcons CBs Mike Hughes, C.J. Henderson, and Billy Bowman

Jets WRs Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Rock Ya-Sin, and Roger McCreary

49ers WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel vs. Cardinals CBs Max Melton and Denzel Burke

Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy vs. Dolphins CBs Julius Brents, Jason Marshall, and Chris Johnson

Titans WR Carnell Tate vs. Giants CBs Greg Newsome and Colton Hood

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WR Davante Adams vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Bears WRs Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Kalif Raymond vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen, and Cooper DeJean

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Bengals CB D.J. Turner

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Rams CB Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 3 matchups according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. (Note that we're using 2025 data until Week 4.)

5 Best TE Matchups

1. Steelers vs. Bengals (+54.2%)
2. Seahawks at Commanders (+31.4%)
3. Chiefs at Dolphins (+30.1%)
4. Bengals at Steelers (+29.8%)
5. 49ers vs. Cardinals (+28.0%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

28. Cowboys vs. Ravens (-20.5%)
29. Saints vs. Raiders (-21.3%)
30. Panthers vs. Falcons (-23.4%)
31. Bears vs. Eagles (-35.4%)
32. Chargers at Bills (-42.5%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 3 matchups according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. (Note that we're using 2025 data until Week 4.)

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Panthers at Browns (+90.1%)
2. Saints vs. Raiders (+82.3%)
3. Buccaneers vs. Vikings (+75.3%)
4. Raiders at Saints (+47.0%)
5. Steelers vs. Bengals (+42.8%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

28. Ravens at Cowboys (-38.5%)
29. Chargers at Bills (-39.5%)
30. Jets at Lions (-40.3%)
31. Eagles at Bears (-46.1%)
32. Broncos vs. Rams (-56.2%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 3 matchups according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. (Note that we're using 2025 data until Week 4.)

5 Best K Matchups

1. Jake Bates vs. Jets (+37.8%)
2. Tyler Loop vs. Cowboys (+32.7%)
3. Matt Gay at Saints (+24.6%)
4. Eddy Pineiro vs. Cardinals (+24.5%)
5. Trey Smack vs. Falcons (+15.3%)

5 Worst K Matchups

28. Cam Little vs. Patriots (-17.4%)
29. Drew Stevens vs. Seahawks (-26.2%)
30. Chad Ryland at 49ers (-27.9%)
31. Andres Borregales at Jaguars (-34.2%)
32. Spencer Shrader vs. Texans (-40.3%)