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Week 3 Matchups That Matter: Will The Cowboys Keep Rolling?

Welcome to Week 3’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

We now have two week’s worth of 2025 data, which is good but still not great. 

We’re just starting to get an idea of what all these offenses and defenses will look like this season. But a lot of the numbers can still be misleading.

So be careful not to weigh matchups too heavily. And, of course, check the Week 3 Rankings and the start/sit advice on your Team Intel page.

Good luck in Week 3!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Ravens (53.5)
t-2. Cowboys at Bears (50.5)
t-2. Dolphins at Bills (50.5)
4. Broncos at Chargers (45.5)
t-5. Chiefs at Giants (44.5)
t-5. Broncos at Chargers (44.5)
t-5. Rams at Eagles (44.5)
t-5. Cardinals at 49ers (44.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-10. Raiders at Commanders (43.5)
t-10. Texans at Jaguars (43.5)
t-10. Colts at Titans (43.5)
t-10. Jets at Buccaneers (43.5)
t-14. Bengals at Vikings (41.5)
t-14. Packers at Browns (41.5)
t-14. Saints at Seahawks (41.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Bills (31.0)
2. Ravens (29.0)
3. Cowboys (26.0)
4. Chiefs (25.25)
5. Buccaneers (25.0)

Fewest Projected Points

t-26. Giants (19.25)
t-26. Titans (19.25)
t-26. Bengals (19.25) 
t-26. Panthers (19.25)
30. Jets (18.5)
t-31. Saints (17.0)
t-31. Browns (17.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Bills (64.3)
2. Colts (63.5)
3. Cowboys (63.3)
4. Saints (63.2)
5. Commanders (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Panthers (61.3)
29. Rams (61.1)
30. Dolphins (61.0)
31. Jets (60.8)
32. Titans (60.5)

Weather Concerns

Colts at Titans

There's about a 50% chance of rain during this game, particularly in the second half. Winds are forecasted at just 5-8 mph. No changes to projections.

Packers at Browns

There's a chance for storms to roll in late in this game, with winds gusts of 15-20 mph. Most of the game should have no weather impact, though, so we're not altering projections.

Cowboys at Bears

Current forecasts show a 30-40% chance of rain during this game. Wind are coming in at just 3-8 mph. No changes to projections.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and PFF pass rush grade through two weeks. I averaged all three categories to come up with the Rank.

Note that this is still just a two-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Caleb Williams vs. Cowboys
2. Josh Allen vs. Dolphins
3. Jared Goff at Ravens
4. Dak Prescott at Bears
5. Drake Maye vs. Steelers

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Kyler Murray at 49ers
29. Bryce Young vs. Falcons
30. Justin Herbert vs. Broncos
31. Michael Penix at Panthers
32. Jalen Hurts vs. Rams

Running Back

Run Defense Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA and Pro Football Focus run defense grade through two weeks. I averaged the two categories to come up with the Rank.

Note that this is still just a two-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs at Giants
2. Vikings vs. Bengals
3. Saints at Seahawks
4. Cowboys at Bears
5. Lions at Ravens

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Commanders vs. Raiders
29. Panthers vs. Falcons
30. Broncos at Chargers
31. Packers at Browns
32. Eagles vs. Rams

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs at Giants
2. Bears vs. Cowboys
3. Colts at Titans
4. Commanders vs. Raiders
5. Steelers at Patriots

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Jets at Buccaneers
29. Bengals at Vikings
30. Chargers vs. Broncos
31. Falcons at Panthers
32. Saints at Seahawks

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Bears CBs Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, and Nick McCloud

Bears WRs Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs, Kaiir Elam, and DaRon Bland

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Falcons CBs Mike Hughes and Dee Alford

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. 49ers CBs Renardo Green, Deommodore Lenoir, and Upton Stout

Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Bills CBs Christian Benford and Tre White

Bills WRs Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, and Khalil Shakir vs. Dolphins CBs Rasul Douglas, Jack Jones, and Jason Marshall

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, and Dontayvion Wicks vs. Browns CBs Greg Newsome, Denzel Ward, and Cameron Mitchell

Jaguars WR Travis Hunter vs. Texans CB Jalen Pitre

Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Jets CB Sauce Gardne

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain Jr.

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Lions at Ravens
2. Saints at Seahawks
3. Falcons at Panthers
4. 49ers vs. Cardinals
5. Browns vs. Packers

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Bengals at Vikings
29. Commanders vs. Raiders
30. Giants vs. Chiefs
31. Dolphins at Bills
32. Panthers vs. Falcons

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bengals at Vikings
2. Bills vs. Dolphins
3. Falcons at Panthers
4. Steelers at Patriots
5. Colts at Titans

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Texans at Jaguars
29. Rams at Eagles
30. Dolphins at Bills
31. Browns vs. Packers
32. Titans vs. Colts

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Cameron Dicker vs. Broncos
2. John Parker Romo at Panthers
3. Chase McLaughlin vs. Jets
4. Evan McPherson at Vikings
5. Jake Elliott vs. Rams

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Eddy Pineiro vs. Cardinals
29. Andre Szmyt vs. Packers
30. Chad Ryland at 49ers
31. Cam Little vs. Texans
32. Joey Slye vs. Colts

Next Up

Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 3: Can We Trust Detroit's Offense?

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.